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Dan D. Kunleby on Wednesday, will take a week since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu sent Sismic Shock Waves through the oil and gas industry of Nigeria with a decisive shake-up at the National Petroleum Company Nigerian Woolleum Limited (NNPC LTD). The announcement unleashed the reshuffles of the Council room and a clear level of top management. The impact was immediate and national. From Abuja to Lagos, Centro n Some welcomed the shake-up with cautious optimism. Others reacted with anxiety. Everyone agrees: the stakes are high.
For years, many of us in the sector have asked for a profound reform. Nnpc Ltd. – a society that should be the heartbeat of the Nigerian economy – has instead become a precautionary history. The society, once a symbol of ambition guided by the state, has long lost its competitive advantage, weighed down by inefficiencies, excess of exaggeration, opacity and dead hand of political interference. The move of Tinubu, although politically risky, reports a late recognition but necessary that the status quo has failed.
I would like to start citing the President of the new Council:
“The renovation is crucial to improve operational efficiency, the restoration of investors’ trust, the strengthening of local content, the guidance of economic growth and the progress of marketing and diversification of gas”.
This is a heavy mandate and reflects the real scale of the crisis. Next to this accusation, the president added another critical assignment:
“Conduct a strategic review of the portfolio of operated activities and joint ventures in NNPC to ensure alignment with the objectives of maximizing value.”
These are not empty words. They reflect years of accumulated dysfunction and missed opportunities, failure that have brought the hydrocarbon sector of Nigeria to their knees. The president seems ready to let the technocrats guided. Now, the question is if the leadership of NNPC Ltd., under his new group of group Bashir Bayo Ojulari (BBO), can get up to the occasion.
The long decline
For more than a decade, Nigeria has submitted to a world quickly moving its energy borders. While other nations have discovered new reserves, developed integrated energy strategies and have adapted to the Revolution of Discistance and Renewable Energy, Nigeria has been blocked. The main international oil companies (IOC), frustrated by insecurity, regulatory inconsistency and political flip flops, started selling. These are not only company decisions: they are strong warnings that the Nigerian energy environment is no longer attractive.
The production of oil fell from over 2.6 million barrels per day in the 2000s to a current average of 1.7 million. This is also unstable, vulnerable to theft, vandalism, sabotage of pipeline and community disorders. The production of natural gas is also in strong decline. The six-trains of Nigeria in Bonny Island-progenized to deliver 22 million tons per year to the hour works a lot below capacity due to inadequate raw materials of gas. The investments were dried up throughout the line.
At the center of this there is a trusted deficit. The host communities feel abandoned. Joint venture partners are disillusioned. Investors are skeptical. NNPC Ltd. has not managed to satisfy his counterpart financing obligations. It is also not made as a truly commercial entity, despite its transition in a limited liability company pursuant to the Petroleum Industry Act (Pia). The result? A sector in free fall.
Bbo’s legacy
This is the ground that BBO must now navigate. His appointment to CEO of the group arrives in a moment of immense fragility, but also possibilities. There is a window, brief and narrow, to restore the narrative. But don’t make mistakes: the task is enormous.
First of all, BBO must reconstruct trust. This will not happen with speeches or photographs. Requires action. The trust must be restored with the internal staff, the Board of Directors, the National Assembly, the communities that produce oil, the partners of the IOC, the managers of PSC, the out of the top of the Totani and the lenders. Each group is looking closely and everyone expects something tangible.
Secondly, the upstream segment must be revived. The activities nnpc and & p in Benin and in other areas require urgent attention. The sleeping fields must be activated. OML 11, held for a long time due to political and environmental issues, should become a symbol of a new approach, based on transparency, negotiation and execution. In the same way, precious but inactive blocks such as Opls 245, 321 and 323 should be resolved. These blocks of the Atlantic basin have the potential to reposition the Nigeria future future, if only the government and the regulator can break the legal logjam.
In addition to the exploration and production, the gas must be taken seriously. Nigeria’s gas reserves are among the largest in the world. Yet they remain underutilized. A complete strategy of gas development has expired, focused on internal use, industrialization and export, is late.
Do not compete with private capital
Just as the upstream needs a awakening, the medium and downstream sectors require a different approach. For too long, the Federal Government and the NNPC have tried to control any connection in the value chain. This must end. The midstream and downstream are now dominated by private players who have focused enormous capital – often borrowed from high interest rates – to build deposits, pipelines and filling stations. These investors should not be reduced by a competitor financed by the state that operates without commercial discipline.
A truly reformed NNPC Ltd. It must leave the import of fuel, retail marketing and deposit operations to the private sector. Where the state is necessary, as in regulatory supervision, in quality control or strategic reserves – should act in moderation and professionalism.
A successful story stands out: Dangote’s refinery. At $ 20 billion, it is the largest industrial project in Africa and a powerful symbol of what private capital can reach. Nnpc Ltd. should collaborate with crawls, do not compete. The exchanges of flocks for products, swap equities and supply agreements could be explored. This is the model for the future.
A house that needs repair
Nnpc ltd. itself is a temptular and bureaucratic giant. Its corporate structure is swollen. His operations are full of inefficiencies. Many of its branches are redundant. Internal responsibility is weak. Digital transformation has long been expected. The BBO must undertake a complete audit of personnel, operations and supply practices. The grouping is not only desirable, it is existential.
Reducing the cost of production is fundamental. Nigeria oil currently costs over $ 30 per barrel to produce, including the highest in the world. This makes our crude oil non -competitive, especially when the reference prices are volatile. The BBO must reduce costs, eliminate waste and standardize operations to the global reference parameters.
In addition, BBO’s leadership style will have importance. It must be decisive, transparent and professional. He has to isolate the company from the policy-to-detention in Nigeria-and let the patronage, not the patronage, leads the decision-making process. If he succeeds, he will redefine what is possible in the management of Nigerian state companies.
The clock is ticking
Time is a luxury bbo does not have. With the impending electoral cycle of 2026, attention will soon move from politics to politics. If the reforms are not started rapidly, with the next 12-18 months, they may never happen. The interests acquired, both within and outside the government, will group and resist the change.
This is the reason why the president does not only have to appoint professionals, but must protect them. If the BBO is successful, it needs political coverage. It must be made to operate with independence. The incorporate must end. Institutional sabotage must be punished.
A proof of national will
As someone who has recommended and studied this sector for more than 25 years, I have seen his peaks and dives. I know what is possible. But I also know what is likely, if the courage fails. Nigeria is on the point of energy irrelevance, not because we lack resources, but because we have wasted time.
We are sitting in aging infrastructure built in the 70s and 80s. The pipes forgive. The refineries are obsolete. The electrical power plants are lacking in gas. In the meantime, the global energy conversation is moving: Towards Decarbonization, green hydrogen and energy accumulation. We are left behind.
If Bbo and its team can stop this decline, if they can restore credibility, efficiency and commercial focus – NNPC Ltd. It will not survive only, but will guide. But if they fail, the cost will be monumental: lost revenues, lost jobs, loss loss of national importance.
It is not just about repairing a company. It is about saving a country.
The last chance of post nnpc: The Rough Road to travel for Bayo Ojulari, Dan D. Kunle appeared for the first time on Theconclaveng.
