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Fears of submarine-laid mines, kamikaze drone boats and GPS interference have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has long threatened to close the narrow waterway through which 20% of the world’s oil supply passes, knowing that such a move would cause market chaos and send prices soaring. This is what is actually happening right now.
At least 16 ships have been hit by Iran since the conflict began, and Tehran released a video (below) claiming they were the moment an oil tanker was attacked off the coast of Iraq – with devastating consequences.
Currently, 3,000 ships and about 20,000 crew are trapped or affected in the region, the International Maritime Organization said.
So what tools and weapons is Iran using to block this vital trade route – and what will they hold back in the future?
Marine drones
The marine drone threat has already occurred has long been a feature of the war in Ukraineand the tactic is now being used in the Persian Gulf.
Marine drones, sometimes called USVs (unmanned surface vehicles), are small, unmanned vessels that operate on or below the surface of the water, making them difficult to defend against, especially at night.
In January last year, footage released by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (below) purported to show the plane in an underground tunnel.
Naval drones laden with explosives have reportedly been used in at least two attacks on oil tankers in the region since the war began.
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On March 1, a crude oil tanker was hit 70 km offshore Omankilling one crew member.
Days later, the Bahamian-flagged crude oil tanker Sonangol Namibe was hit near the port of Khor al Zubair in Iraq.
Video posted online showed what appeared to be a naval drone hitting the side of the ship, triggering an explosion that sent plumes of smoke into the sky.
Alicja Hagopian with Sky News’ data and forensics team report that Iran has attacked at least 16 ships around the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Gulf.
Six ships were reported to have been attacked since Wednesday morning alone, which was the most intense period of naval attacks carried out by Iran so far.
Iran has also suffered heavy casualties at sea, with reports of 87 people dead after the US sank an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka last week.
Meanwhile, Iranian UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles), or flying drones, were also spotted. Dr Sidharth Kaushal from the RUSI think tank told Sky News the ship may pose a lower risk than a real ship, but is dangerous for the crew and has a psychological impact.
Did Iran deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz?
The possibility of Iran deploying anti-ship mines into the Strait of Hormuz has increasingly come into focus as the war continues.
Made famous by their use in large minefields in the Second World War, these weapons would have posed a major threat to ships passing through contested waters.
Iran has several “contact mines”, according to Dr Kaushal.
But a more sophisticated threat comes in the form of mines waiting for ships on the seabed. When a ship passes over it, the ship is detected by sensors and then the mine releases a torpedo-like charge, said Dr Kaushal.
These mines could be laid by ships – although these would most likely be targets of US-Israeli attacks – or by so-called “midget submarines”.
The submarine is based on a North Korean model and can be used to place mines covertly.
It is unclear how many mines – if any – have been planted in the Strait of Hormuz.
Dr Kaushal cited reports from American sources indicating that “only a small number, tens” had been deployed so far. Sources told Reuters news agency that Iran had deployed about a dozen mines and that most of their locations were known.
Stock of anti-ship missiles
“What Iran hasn’t used much so far is their anti-ship missile arsenal,” Dr Kaushal said.
These include the Iranian variant of China’s C802 ballistic missile or the domestically produced Kheibar Shekan missile.
“They have achieved their strategic objectives now,” said Dr Kaushal, referring to the fact that the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed.
This could change if there is an effort to have commercial ships pass through these waters accompanied by warships.
“If there was an attempt to force the Straits with naval force, I think some capabilities might be more relevant.”
The US had previously rejected almost daily requests from the shipping industry for military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz, sources told Reuters. however US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Sky News that this would change.
High levels of GPS interference have been detected in the region. Credit: gpsjam.org
Isn’t Iran the only one doing GPS jamming?
The problem of GPS – or more correctly called GNSS (global navigation satellite system), jamming – is increasingly becoming a problem for airplanes and ships around the world.
And the Strait of Hormuz has been a hot spot for electronic interference since before the conflict broke out.
Although they can be used to antagonize enemies, they are often used as a defensive measure against drones.
Dr Ramsey Faragher, director of the Royal Institute of Navigation, told Sky News that many countries might use this technology in the Gulf.
“It’s probably a combination of Iran possibly coming out and using more of their own sources of interference,” he said. “But I also suspect that neighboring countries have now used their own forces to try to defend themselves against drone attacks.”
Groups of ships with specific geometric patterns were spotted on tracking services – most likely caused by GPS interference. Photo: Ship Finder
Jamming navigation signals is one of the “cheapest and most effective first lines of defense” against drone attacks, he said.
A look at a map of known GPS interference in the region appears to show hot spots in Oman and the UAE, which are among the countries Iran has targeted since the conflict broke out.
In VesselFinder, which tracks ships around the world based on their location transmissions, a large group of ships with strange geometric shapes can be seen. This may be caused by GPS interference and may not show the actual position.
Dr Faragher added: “This is clearly one of the most active places in the world at the moment for electronic interference and this impacts, as we all know, not only maritime shipping and commercial shipping but also impacts all the aircraft flying around the area.”
