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The entry of Yemen’s Houthi rebels into the war on Iran’s side has sparked fears that the oil crisis affecting global trade could get worse.
The threat of Iranian mines and missiles has kept much of the vital Strait of Hormuz closed, with oil tankers forced to leave the Gulf and causing the price of a barrel to skyrocket.
Saudi Arabiaone of the world’s largest oil exporters, instead ships millions of barrels of crude every day through the Bab el Mandeb, another narrow waterway on the other side of the country.
This avoided Hormuz and brought the ships further away from it Iran.
But they still pass close to Yemen, where Iran supports them Houthi rebels has a stockpile of missiles and drones that can be used to disrupt shipping – as will happen between 2023 and 2025.
If shipping through the Bab el Mandeb Strait – which connects the Red Sea and the Suez Canal – is disrupted, this could worsen an already bad economic situation caused by problems in the Strait of Hormuz.
What have the Houthis done before?
Between November 2023 and January 2025, the Houthis attacked more than 100 merchant ships with missiles and drones.
Two ships were sunk and four sailors died during the campaign.
Military ships were deployed to the region to try and guard commercial shipping, including the British Type 45 destroyer HMS Diamond.
While there, they shot down a Houthi drone, including one critical operation that shot down seven people.
Closure of Bab el Mandeb Strait could have ‘clear and significant’ economic impact
A full or even partial cessation of shipping via the Red Sea would have clear and significant economic impacts globally and in the UK.
Even a return to attack, without militant groups taking over major shipping lanes, would have a major impact.
We don’t even have to imagine what might happen; we only need to look back a few years.
Houthi attacks around Christmas 2023 resulted in more dangerous conditions, causing insurance costs to soar.
Adding to cost pressures is the fact that ships are routed around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, adding between 10 and 14 days to the journey.
As a result, orders for delivery slots have increased in price.
Longer travel times and route changes are also causing supply chain disruptions, making it difficult for companies to get goods onto ships and to shelves on time.
Supply chain problems were also caused by the Ever Given container ship blocking an important entrance to the Red Sea, the Suez Canal.
It is this blockage that is part of the initial spike in price increases in 2021 and 2022 that is giving rise to a cost of living crisis.
Large container carriers made route changes to avoid the Red Sea
Africa’s largest container port – Tanger Med in Morocco – said on Monday it was preparing for increased ship calls as tensions in the Middle East continued.
This comes as major container ships including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM said they were rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, avoiding the Bab el Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea.
Oil tanker traffic in the region. Photo: Ship Finder
Idriss Aarabi, managing director of Tanger Med, said higher fuel costs had added pressure to freight rates due to longer journeys.
He said airlines had imposed war risk, emergency conflict and deviation surcharges of between $1,500 (£1,133) and $3,300 (£2,493) per standard container.
Bab el Mandeb: In numbers
20: How many miles wide is the strait.
25%: About a quarter of global container trade passes through the strait on its way to and from the Suez Canal.
12%: How much of the world’s total trade normally passes through the Suez Canal.
