A “Blue Wall” Victory Isn’t Complete Without the Blue Dot of Omaha, by Jeff Zeleny

 

The battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania may be crucial in the race for the White House, but winning those blue-wall states won’t in and of itself guarantee a campaign victory without something else: the blue dot of Omaha.

Signs with blue circles have begun appearing on lawns across the city, a symbol of hope for Democrats in a sea of ​​red like Nebraska, with one of the state’s only electoral votes likely to decide Kamala Harris or Donald Trump in the final two months of the campaign.

“It’s plausible that we could have a tie,” said Jason Brown, who began making signs last week to show his support for Harris. “The whole notion of ‘my vote doesn’t count’ is really being thrown out the window. That could be it. That could be a deciding factor.”

Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that award electoral votes based on congressional district, rather than statewide winner.

Republicans have long tried to change the law here, so far without success, but for Democrats it is a point of pride. Barack Obama in 2008 and Joe Biden in 2020 are the only two party candidates to have collected a payoff in a single electoral vote.

Harris’s campaign and her Democratic allies are investing millions of dollars to follow suit.

“It’s starting conversations. People are like, what’s the blue dot?” Ruth said.

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Huebner-Brown, who joined her husband in making and distributing the blue dot signs around Omaha. “That’s the important part, because once you start the conversation, you have a full conversation.”

For Harris and Trump to reach the White House, the race for 270 electoral votes could come down to Nebraska’s sprawling 2nd District, which includes Omaha and parts of two neighboring counties that bear many similarities to suburban areas across the country.

Here’s why: If Harris wins the three “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and Trump wins the sunbelt states of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, the race could become a 269-269 tie, decided by the House of Representatives. A single Electoral College vote in Nebraska could change things, assuming no other states deliver surprising results.

Trump has taken advantage of the system in Maine, a Democratic state, where he won a single Electoral College vote in 2016 and 2020 despite losing at the state level. Democrats are less optimistic about a win in Maine, party officials say, than they are about winning one of Nebraska’s electoral votes.

A not-so-secret weapon for Democrats could be Tim Walz, who was born and raised here before moving two states over to Minnesota, where he was elected to Congress and is serving his second term as governor. While he’s not a familiar name to many Nebraska voters, pride was revived for many Democrats when Harris picked him as her running mate last month.

“People are proud of it, absolutely,” said Ashlei Spivey, recalling conversations with voters as she knocked on doors in Omaha in her campaign for a state legislature seat. “Once a Nebraskan, always a Nebraskan, and that doesn’t change. People are super excited to say look what we helped produce.”

Nebraska state Sen. Tony Vargas believes the Harris-Walz ticket will also help Democrats win control of Congress, starting with her race for the 2nd District, which is among the most competitive in the country.

“We have suburbanites, we have rural, we have urbanites, we all have different walks of life, you know, all different races, ethnicities, socioeconomics,” Vargas said. “Really, this is a truly independent place.”

Republican Congressman Don Bacon has thrived, and survived politically for nearly a decade, thanks to the district’s independent streak and increasingly rare ticket splitters. Trump won here in 2016, but lost in 2020.

Bacon said Trump runs the risk of losing again if he doesn’t focus on inflation, immigration and other top voters’ concerns.

“When you talk about DEI, race, making up nicknames, it doesn’t work well in this district,” Bacon said. “They want to talk about the issues. This is a problem district.”

“It could change until Election Day”

For months, Trump and his Republican allies have sought to change Nebraska law that awards electoral votes based on congressional districts and implement winner-take-all rules in the state.

The effort failed during the Legislature’s regular session, which ended in the spring. Attempts to call a special session to consider the measure failed because it lacked enough support to overcome a Democratic filibuster.

“I never rule anything out. We’re being very careful and careful about whether or not this is going to happen,” said Vargas, a state senator who is completing his term and running for Congress. “It could change until Election Day, in theory.”

For now, the Trump campaign and Republicans are working to defeat Harris in a district that stretches from the western suburbs of Omaha to rural towns like Wahoo, where Stephen and Sonja Peetz have said they are ready for a change in the White House: a return to Trump.

“I liked his stance on immigration. The economy was better. Prices were lower,” Stephen Peetz said after stopping for a morning cup of coffee at a downtown cafe. “I had more faith in the last administration. In the last three and a half years, I’ve lost faith.”

His wife, Sonja, added of the former president: “I don’t think I like him very much as a person, but I like his policies. He’s not the person I’m going to vote for, it’s what he’s done for the country in the past, his history and what he’s done for our economy.”

Both question Harris’ values ​​and are unconvinced by Walz, regardless of where he grew up.

While Trump is expected to win the statewide vote in Nebraska by a wide margin (he won about 58% in 2016 and 2020), it’s an open question how much he intends to compete in the competitive 2nd District. Trump signs dot the roadsides, but his campaign and allies have spent only a few thousand dollars on advertising here.

Meanwhile, Democrats are dominating spending in the key media market of Omaha. Since Harris rose to the top of the Democratic ticket in July, her campaign has spent just under $1 million on ads here, according to a CNN analysis of AdImpact data, while some allied outside groups have spent about $600,000 more.

Democrats are also poised to have a big advertising advantage going forward. The party has $7.8 million in future bookings here, according to AdImpact data, with more than $1 million in airtime booked per week for the final month of the race. Future bookings are split roughly evenly between Harris’s campaign, $3.7 million, and her main allied super PAC, $3.9 million.

In Midtown Omaha’s Dundee neighborhood, the blue dot signs are in such demand that Jason Brown has run out of spray paint and white signs. A new order arrived Tuesday night, but he said orders are piling up, not just from Democrats but also from independents who could help decide the election.

“It doesn’t mean, ‘Oh my God, I’ve become a Democrat,'” Brown said of his speech to undecided voters. “No, you’re voting for what you think is right for the future, whether that’s for the next four years or for your children or grandchildren after that.”

[CNN]

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