Buhari: a loss for APC and ADC

The disappearance of the former president Muhammadu Buhari not only marks the end of an era, but also a significant political loss for two of the three main political parties in Nigeria, the sentence of all progressives (APC) and the growing coalition force, the African democratic congress (ADC).

For both sides, Bohari represented more than a simple head of state; It was a political symbol with immense influence. His simple presence in a manifestation of the campaign, no matter how short he would have brought an immense weight, in particular between his faithful base, estimated at over 12 million strong. These supporters, often described as a sequel to “cult”, have remained fiercely engaged with him since his first political days under the Congress for progressive change (CPC) and the Buhari organization. However, the number may have been reduced by now!

In recent times, many former CPC loyalists and political agents of the Buhari era seem to have found a new home in the Adc, remodeling its structure and giving it a dose of national importance. This silent but strategic realignment has positioned the ADC as a potential beneficiary of some of the political legacy of Buhari, especially in northern Nigeria, where its influence remains deeply rooted. However, a good number of CPC blocking and the Buhari organization remained in the APC.

If Buhari had also lived to make a symbolic apparition in an event of the APC campaign, it would have significantly dampened the impetus of the ADC and strengthened the APC claim on its lasting political capital. On the contrary, if he had chosen to lend his image, even in silence to the ADC, he would have sent shock waves through the APC, raising questions about his grip on his base.

Now, with its disappearance, both parties are left in the competitive void, each of which climbs to appeal to the millions that venerated Boari for its perceived integrity, simple lifestyle and northern populist appeal. The political battlefield is wide open and neither APC nor the ADC can safely affirm the legitimate heir of Buhari’s inheritance.

However, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu may have earned an initial advantage. Its respectful and dignified management of the death of Buhari, marked with rapid tributes, state honors and symbolic gestures; It can resonate with many of the followers of Bohari. In Nigerian politics, these symbolic acts are never under esteem. They report alignment, loyalty and shared values, which profoundly count with a basis that is emotional, ideological and still looking for a new political anchoring.

With the approach of the electoral cycle of 2027, the real question becomes: who will inherit the Buhari political machinery? The answer can model the future of both the APC and the ADC and, by extension, the political panorama of Nigeria.