Fresh Data paint features that worry about the Nigerian agricultural sector; Introduction encourages prices to produce prices up 29% in 5 months

The fragile agricultural economy in Nigeria faced a deeper crisis because new data from the National Statistics Bureau (NBS) revealed a surge of 28.98% in the average cost of agricultural products between January and May 2025.

The worrying price increases refers to intensifying disturbances in all food production and supply chains, with broad implications for food security, inflation, and household income.

According to the latest NBS price index figure, the average cost of agricultural products rose from 110.5 in January to 142.53 in May 2025. While an additional monthly increase was recorded earlier this year, 1.77% in February and 2.65% in March, the real crisis opened in May, when prices rose 22.28% in just one month.

Analysts tracking dramatic prices to persistent insecurity in Nigeria’s main agricultural zones, especially northern-middle regions. In countries such as Benue, a long time considered as a state food basket, clashes of violence between farmers and armed groups have forced thousands of farmers from their land, stop the planting season and limit food output.

This disorder has triggered supply shocks, pushing prices up even because demand remains unchanged. In many rural communities, agricultural land has been quiet for fear of attacks, while the transfer has paralyzed commercial and subsistence agricultural operations. What is felt in the market today is the combined effect of several unwilling seasons and the greater risk of growing high -yielding agricultural land in volatile areas.

NBS data reveals a surprising inflation rate for the state of the ben. In April 2025, food inflation reached 51.8% of years-year-year, among the highest in the entire country, in addition to the monthly price increase of 25.6%. The overall inflation reached 34.3% for the same period. While May saw a significant decline in the year-to-year food inflation to 22%, the state still recorded a monthly increase of 4.1%, showing the volatility of short-term prices that were ongoing due to the fragility of the supply chain.

This fluctuation reflects the surprise effect of insecurity and temporary interventions, such as food assistance or market stabilization efforts, which may have pursued the number of years-year-year without overcoming the underlying structural problems.

The dramatic increase in food prices contributes significantly to the overall inflation of Nigeria. Food is a dominant component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and when agricultural products become unreachable, the effects of ripples are felt in all transportation, health care, and even education, because families reproctify expenses to survive.

This inflation trend places additional pressure on households that have been wrestling with stagnant wages and high unemployment. For countries where more than 60% of the population lives below the poverty line, purchasing power erosion can worsen the lack of nutrition and social riots.

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In addition, price increases have created double burdens for urban populations, which depend on rural agricultural communities for fortune, and for farmers themselves, who may receive higher prices per unit but produce less due to reduced access to agricultural land, fertilizer, and input.

Interestingly, the NBS report shows that the price of imported food remains relatively stable. The imported food price index rose 1.3% simple in February and peaked at 115.3 in April before it dropped slightly in May to 113.7. This stability, however, came at the cost: Nigeria spent N1.67 trillion for food and beverage imports between January and March 2025, an increase of 5% compared to the same period in 2024.

While temporary imports can eliminate local deficiencies, they worsen the imbalance of Nigerian trade, drain foreign reserves, and deepen dependence on the external food system, especially during the uncertainty of the global supply chain. Dependence on imports also describes consumers in currency volatility, because the weakening of Naira can quickly reverse clear stability in the price of imported food.

Data illustrates a serious picture of Nigerian food economy and highlights the urgent need for multi-savings interventions:

• Security: Restoring peace in the agricultural community is the most important. Without basic safety, incentives to return to agriculture will remain low, regardless of government policy.
• Investment in infrastructure and input: Farmers need support through credit that can be accessed, fertilizer, mechanization, and storage system that is tough to increase results and reduce post -harvest losses.
• Nomadic education and conflict resolution: When the conflict of farmers-servants is increasingly intensive, long-term peace development strategies-including nomadic children’s education and structured land use policies can reduce violence.
• Trade and policy reforms: Nigeria must balance its import policy to protect domestic agriculture while ensuring food availability. Support for agro -processing and export markets can help farmers get more and stabilize prices.

The increase of almost 29% of the price of agricultural products in just five months is a red flag that indicates a deep systemic failure. Left without bonds, these problems threaten not only food security but national stability and economic growth. While the federal government continues to foster agricultural development as the main pillar of its economic diversification plan, the data shows that Nigeria has not bridged the gap between policy rhetoric and the reality of millions of thirsty citizens.