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Following the death of the former President Muhammadu Buhari recently, the conversation has turned back about the economic heritage of his eight-year government, especially in the context of the Nigerian GDP per capita.
The numbers of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reveal mixed economic records, which are marked by stagnation, shocks, and fragile recovery in the middle of the global and domestic sacred breeze.
Buhari, who served in 2015, inherited a challenging economic environment. Oil Prices – Nigerian export revenues – have collapsed in the previous year, and state dependence on crude oil exposed it on external shocks. However, his hopes were high for former military leaders, who promised to fight corruption, secure the country, and restore economic discipline.
In 2015, Nigerian GDP per capita reached $ 2,729, down a little from $ 3,265 in 2014 under President Goodluck Jonathan. This decline reflects the initial signs of economic pressure, but in 2016, the situation has worsened. Nigeria officially entered the recession, and GDP per capita dropped sharply to $ 2,178. The decline was mostly driven by low oil income, reducing foreign investment, and weak policy responses which according to critics failed to inspire trust between investors and citizens.
In 2017, GDP per capita dropped further to $ 1,969, marking one of the lowest points during the Termination of Buhari and strengthening public frustration over sluggish economic growth. The controversial forex policy of the central bank, delay in the implementation of the budget, and tension in the Delta Niger – which interferes with oil output – quoted among the key factors that limit the recovery.
The moderate rebound began in 2018, with GDP per capita rose slightly to $ 2,153, and in 2019, it increased further to $ 2,361 – a sign that the economy found its footing. However, Pandemi Covid-19 struck in 2020, plunged the world into a crisis. Nigeria is no exception. That year, the figure dropped again to $ 2,097, followed by $ 2,086 in 2021, reflecting the impact of locking, volatility of oil prices, and disrupted supply chains.
In the last year of Buhari in the office, 2022, GDP per capita rose slightly to $ 2,198. This marks the full circle moment for his government, ending right below where he began in 2015. Apart from this minor improvement, the average Nigerians are arguably worse when considering inflation, currency devaluation, and continuous unemployment in all of their presidency.
The era of Buhari’s economic was marked by rollercoaster from the recession and recovery period. His government witnessed two recessions – in 2016 and again in 2020 – each followed by a slow and fragile rebound. Although the government announced efforts to diversify the economy, such plans are limited in their impact, and non-miny sectors cannot fully compensate for decreased oil income. This lack of economic resilience is one of the most persistent challenges of administration.
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From the point of view of the policy, the term of office of Buhari is seen through a contrasting lens. While his supporters praised him because they started the development of infrastructure and trying to control excessive government spending, many critics argue that economic policies are often reactive and have no innovation. Decisions about currency management, import restrictions, and fuel subsidy regimes increase uncertainty among foreign investors and create distortion in the domestic market. The economic direction seems inconsistent at certain times, weakening trust in government actions.
For the Nigerian public, the year of Buhari was marked by increasing economic difficulties. Although the data about GDP per capita fluctuates all the time in the office, deeper problems such as unemployment, inflation, and food insecurity define the reality of the lives of many citizens. Purchasing power eroded steadily, especially among medium and low -income households. GDP numbers per capita often cover this inequality and disproportionate burden felt by vulnerable communities.
When placed in a historical perspective, Buhari’s notes were not sized to the highest seen under the administration of President Jonathan, especially from 2012 to 2014, when Nigeria’s GDP per capita peaked more than $ 3,000. The Jonathan era saw a stable increase in per capita income, reflecting the tailies of global oil booming and relative macroeconomic stability. Although criticized for other problems, Jonathan led one of the most prosperous economic periods in the history of Nigerian democracy, at least in terms of GDP per capita.
Previously, under President Yar’adua, the economy also experienced growth, with GDP per capita rose from $ 1,563 in 2006 to $ 2,232 in 2008, before it fell to $ 1,960 in 2009. Even the President of Obasanjo, who inherited the economy was much weaker in 1999, in 1999, succeeded in growing GDP per capito from $ 4. Nigeria.
Conversely, the period immediately after the departure of Buhari has churned economically. Under the President of the Tinubu soccer, GDP per capita fell sharply to $ 1,637 in 2023, and subsequently to $ 824 in 2024. The number 2025 was projected at $ 807 – the lowest since the early 2000s. These figures reflect not only the weight of the inherited economic challenges but also the initial impact of hard Tinubu economic reform, including the elimination of fuel subsidies and the liberalization of the foreign exchange market, both of which have triggered inflationary pressure.
Outside the numbers – complex inheritance
For many Nigerians, Buhari’s legacy is not only measured in economic data but also in everyday struggle – repeating the price of fuel, inflation, food insecurity, and persistent power outage. While the government made investments seen on trains, roads, and digital governance, many argue that the benefits are not translated into a real improvement in the standard of living for the majority.
His government was also marked by subsidized controversy, foreign exchange instability, and debt accumulation. Critics show that economic profits are not inclusive, and poverty rates remain high, especially in the northern region.
However, others remember him as a leader who tries to instill discipline in public finance and encourage future infrastructure projects that have been jammed for decades. Anti-corruption encouragement, despite polarization, forms an important part of his leadership.
By: James Odunayo
