What Biden’s Resignation Means for Harris, Democrats and Trump

 

News Analysis by Anthony Zurcher, [North America correspondent, BBC]

Joe Biden has turned the US election on its head. After weeks of forcefully insisting that he would remain the Democratic presidential nominee, he bowed to pressure and withdrew from the race.

Here’s what this means for Vice President Kamala Harris, for Democrats overall, and for Donald Trump.

●Harris is a risk, but many Democrats will want to take it

Kamala Harris’s chances of becoming the Democratic nominee have received a major boost with Joe Biden’s endorsement.

He gave her his full support, calling the decision to nominate her vice president four years earlier the best he had ever made.

She responded by saying that she was honored to have his support and that she would do everything she could to get the nomination.

It is possible that most Democrats will follow the president’s example and align themselves with the vice president to avoid the uncertainty that persists with the Democratic convention less than a month away.

There are practical and political reasons for doing so.
She is next in line for constitutional succession. The optics of ignoring the first woman of color on a presidential ticket would be terrible for the party. She would also have immediate access to the roughly $100 million in campaign funds raised so far.
But there are risks. Public opinion polls show Harris’s approval ratings are as low as his. And in head-to-head matches with Donald Trump, she fares about as well as Biden.

Second, Harris has had a sometimes difficult time as vice president. Early in the administration, she was tasked with addressing the root causes of the migration crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border.

It’s a daunting challenge, and a series of missteps and misstatements have left her open to criticism. She’s also been the administration’s point person on abortion rights, an issue she’s handled far more effectively. But those early impressions have stuck.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Harris has already run for national office (her 2020 bid for the Democratic presidential nomination) and stumbled badly.

Despite her initial success, a series of clumsy interviews, a lack of a clear vision and a poorly managed campaign led her to drop out even before the primaries.

Opting for Harris is a risk for Democrats, but at this point there are no safe options. And the stakes, a possible victory for Donald Trump, are as high as possible.

●The Democratic convention could be chaotic but compelling

Over the past fifty years, political conventions have become rather dull events. With every minute carefully scripted for television, they have become multi-day commercials for the presidential candidate.

Last week’s Republican convention was certainly that way, despite Donald Trump’s far too long and at times rambling acceptance speech.

Next month’s Democratic convention in Chicago is shaping up to be very, very different. Whatever script the party and Biden’s campaign were working on has simply been thrown out the window. Even if the party aligns itself with Harris, it will be difficult to plan (and control) how things play out on the convention floor.

And if Harris fails to unite the party, the convention could devolve into political chaos, with various candidates vying for the nomination in front of cameras and behind closed doors.
It could create a compelling, vibrant, and unpredictable political spectacle unlike anything the American public has ever seen before.

● For Republicans, the distinction between the strong and the fragile goes out the window

This year’s Republican convention was a carefully calibrated machine, promoting the party’s most popular agenda items and focusing criticism on one man, President Joe Biden.

Apparently, the Republicans had the wrong person in mind.
With the news that Biden is abandoning his re-election campaign, the Republican plan spearheaded by Donald Trump has been upended.

Republicans spent a full week of carefully planned events, focusing on the wrong weaknesses of the Democratic Party that opposed them.

The campaign had highlighted the candidate’s strength and vitality with a sensational entrance, preceded by appearances by former wrestler Hulk Hogan and Ultimate Fighting Championship impresario Dana White, as well as a performance by Kid Rock.

The attempts to counter Mr Biden’s perceived fragility, as well as the strategy of alienating younger male voters, were evident.

But in any current scenario, the Democratic nominee will surely be someone much younger than the president.

A “strong versus weak” strategy against Vice President Kamala Harris or one of the younger Democratic governors mentioned as possible successors to Biden would not have the same effect.

If Harris is the nominee, expect Republicans to try to tie her to the perceived failures of the current administration. For months, they have called her a “border czar.”

While the former prosecutor is by no means a member of the party’s progressive wing, Republicans’ previous attacks on her suggest they may also paint her as “far left.”

Regardless of who the nominee is, Republicans will surely blame Democrats for covering up Biden’s age-related weaknesses, putting the nation at risk.

At this point, everyone is flying blind: the first presidential election is only a few months away. [BBC News Analysis]

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