What happens next is mostly in Iranian control – but there is no good choice | World News

When the sun rises above Jerusalem this morning, the Israelites will wake up with the news that America has joined their war and attack Iran. This will be filled with mixed feelings.

For the first night in more than a week there was no Iranian missile attack on Israel, but while the new day brought comfort in US military support, there would also be a deep doubt that this war had entered a dangerous and potentially controlled phase.

Benjamin Netanyahu released a video statement that praised the US President and said peace came with strength; Donald Trump spoke to America and warned Iran that he would not hesitate to order further action if he replied.

What happens next is mostly Iranian control. What they choose to do, will determine the future of this region.

The question is now whether they will respond, but how?

Iran has faced an embarrassing blow from Israel’s jet for nine days and is now suffering from a large attack on their nuclear facilities that are famous by the country they call “Great Devils”; There will be a feeling of humiliation and anger national, and the government needs to show the people that they remain strong.

Developing a nuclear program has taken several decades and came with large costs: billions and billions of dollars and severe international sanctions. It is all now lies in tatters. How did the government explain that to its people, many of them had suffered by sacrificing this great ambition and opposed the cruel leadership they lived in?

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is often described as the longest dictator in the world. He did not survive with reckless but even though the US strike was not intended for regime change, Khameni’s future is now more dangerous than before.

Government rhetoric channels and television will promise fire and victory, but the reality is not simple.

There will be a voice close to the highest leader, especially in the revolutionary guard, encouraging a strong response. Moderates are likely to urge care, alert to drag the US into a broader and more sustainable conflict that Iran cannot win.

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It is unclear how much Iran can do to Israel. Ballistic missiles have been fired in the country every day since the war begins, but in reduced amounts because Israel systematically targets the location of launch and stock.

Iranian, Hezbollah and Hamas proxies, are very degraded and the Assad regime in Syria is no longer. This should all be the first defense line, prevention of Israeli attacks. The shield had collapsed.

Houthi remains challenging but their firing power is limited.

US attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites, not senior Iranian officials. Therefore, strikes on US bases in the region will be the most logical ‘joy-joyful’ response.

If they choose to expand the conflict, Iran can now target oil facilities in the bay or try to close the hormuz strait which is important globally. One of these options will have international consequences.

Shia militias in Iraq may be difficult to control if they decide to act unilaterally. Iraqi security forces are reported to have surrounded the US embassy in Baghdad to anticipate violence.

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There is a possibility that Iran can do something smaller and symbolic as a way to save the face, have the last word and give the area off-ramp. It will be a hope in Washington.

But even in the best scenario, it must be something more than just a token response; Iran staggered -huyung, very weakening internally and externally. If they increase, they take a risk of severe US response that can be a dead blow.

If they surrender, the government faces differences of large domestic differences and reputation damage that may never recover.

For the highest leader this morning, there is no good choice.