2027: Technocrat or politician: Tinubu’s Lagos dilemma…

Day after day, the shadows of 2027 continue to lengthen on the political landscape of Lagos State. As Nigeria’s most important state and home to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, attention is on who will get his support among the long list of eligible potential candidates. Those who matter are watching, weighing every step and waiting with bated breath for the direction the president will lean. No wonder the political air is full of unexpressed ambition. The ones who are simply nailing jelly to the wall are the ones making the loudest noise in the media. But that’s not the story.

President Tinubu stands on the threshold of a defining moment in his political ennoblement and legacy. As the undisputed leader of the Lagos political family, he must have a say in who governs the state he set on the path to progress and prosperity during his tenure from 1999 to 2007. He cannot afford not to get it right at this crucial time.

The choice before President Tinubu is stark: should he support a technocrat, as some argue, or reward a loyal politician who has strengthened Lagos’ political apparatus, as others insist? This dilemma is at the heart of the 2027 Lagos succession debate.

Both arguments hold water. Babatunde Raji Fashola was an unknown lawyer who was appointed chief of staff to the then governor Tinubu and was backed to succeed his principal in 2007. Sources familiar with the Lagos ruling class said if not for luck and sheer bravura, Tinubu might have been defeated by his protégé and successor. It should be recalled that their simmering feud opened up when Fashola unilaterally supported Supo Shasore to succeed him in 2015 against his benefactor and the party’s choice of Akinwunmi Ambode, who ultimately won. Fashola is considered a technocrat in politics.

Ambode, a civil servant who became the state accountant general, succeeded Fashola. He has also been labeled a technocrat. Ambode only served a four-year term in office due to a spate of alleged wrongdoings against the state’s political elite. Despite the party turning its back on him, Ambode went ahead to contest the governorship primaries in 2018 and lost to the party’s choice, Sanwo-Olu.

Speaking on why the party refused to support Ambode, Tinubu said he (Ambode) did not take party members with him and was not accessible. He added that Ambode has deviated from the master plan laid down by the state, stressing that “it appears that the ship of this state has steered in a very wrong direction under his administration. Every time a government has deviated from this plan without compelling reason, the state and its people have borne the painful consequence of improper departure.”

However, it is the unraveling of Sanwo-Olu that has led many to say enough is enough; that the time is right for President Tinubu, for once, to support a battle-hardened politician, forged in the furnace of people’s door-to-door struggles.

President Tinubu’s strength as a politician has been his firm grip on Lagos State politics. Every candidate he supported for governor won and succeeded. However, when Tinubu needed Lagos most during the 2023 presidential elections, its governor was unable to deliver on his promises. Lagos lost to the opposition Labor Party, to Sanwo-Olu’s eternal shame. Among other offences, Governor Sanwo-Olu has particularly fallen out of favor with the President as he reportedly financed the removal of Rt Hon Mudashiru Obasa as the Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly in January 2025. Despite the reinstatement of Obasa, President Tinubu regarded what Sanwo-Olu did as an absolute affront to his political leadership. Those are the technocrats.

Should we then remind Mr. President that he has suffered the most vicious betrayals at the hands of politically naive technocrats whom he helped to hold high political office? Among others, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo immediately comes to mind. Political analysts believe Ambode would have done worse if given a second term, especially ahead of the 2023 presidential election. The interpretation to a discerning observer, then, is that to avoid future betrayals, the kind of harm that would not only hurt but alter, the president should look beyond sharp suits, Ivy League educations and Fortune 500 resumes. Yes, these are useful in governance, but they don’t win elections.

And he has no shortage of thoroughbred politicians capable of holding their own anywhere in the world. Among these personalities is President Obasa, who is regarded as a tested, trusted and consummate politician with a solid understanding of Lagos politics. When Lagos failed in 2023, Obasa still won Lagos West for president. A six-term member of the House of Assembly, Obasa does not claim to be a technocrat but is a well-traveled lawyer and legislator. However, he has been present and instrumental to the socio-economic growth of Lagos over the last 10 years as a spokesperson.

Many see him as a frontline candidate if the president is considering supporting a politician with an easy to remember name across the state, an unblemished reputation and unwavering loyalty to the president and the party, and one who can win elections convincingly, having done so a record six times in his Agege constituency. Obasa’s comparative advantage is strengthened by the fact that he is a devout Muslim, a large voting bloc clamoring for its adherents to fill the seat, considering that the last two governors who have served a combined 12 years are Christians.

Hot on Obasa’s heels is Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat, whose exposure and education help blur the fine line between a technocrat and a politician. Armed with a PhD in System Process Engineering from Cranfield University, England, Hamzat has benefited immensely from his late father’s political influence, serving over the past decade as a special advisor, commissioner and now deputy governor in his second term. On the contrary, he struggles to be accepted by the center of the political class due to his perception as an outsider and opportunist whose loyalty is only to himself, not to the party. His technocratic attitude doesn’t help his case.

Another strong personality would be the President’s Chief of Staff, Femi Gbajabiamila. An American-trained lawyer, Gbajabiamila is polite and cosmopolitan and, like Hamzat, effortlessly bridges the divide between technocrat and politician. From 2003 to 2019 he was a member of the House of Representatives. In 2019, he emerged as Speaker of the House and served until 2023. The major obstacle in his path is that he hails from Lagos Central, which produced former governors Fashola and Sanwo-Olu. Therefore, for fairness and justice, that senatorial area should not even be taken into consideration.

Although his name has appeared in some analyzes of potential gubernatorial candidates, Hakeem Muri-Okunola, principal private secretary to the president, cannot be called a technocrat even though he is a lawyer. Records show he joined the Lagos State civil service in 2001, after a short stint as an associate lawyer at a law firm. Nor can he be considered a politician in any sense. His only legitimate claim or affinity with politics would be to work directly with President Tinubu since his days as governor. Furthermore, his meteoric rise in the civil service as a service chief can be compared to that of one whose palm was helped to break by a benevolent spirit, not by dint of hard work.

For Dr. Tunji Alausa, the current Minister of Education, who has, however, denied harboring such an ambition; and Senator Tokunbo Abiru, two formidable materials for the governorship, no doubt, are, however, hampered by blatant unpopularity and lack of acceptance from the political class, and will struggle if given the ticket less than 10 months before the election.

Ultimately the ball is in the president’s court. However, subjugating critical factors such as loyalty, popularity, broad acceptance, grassroots grit, and attractiveness will spell doom for the state and, by extension, its legacy.

•Ekeinde, Ph.D, an environmental scientist is a strong supporter of Asiwaju Tinubu’s school of democratic values.

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