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There is a palpable sense of fear that, beyond the security challenges that have long plagued southern Kaduna – although now significantly reduced thanks to the determined and strategic efforts of Governor Uba Sani – the upcoming primaries of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the nomination of candidates for the state Senate, House of Representatives and House of Assembly will usher in political violence that would further complicate the security situation. Many analysts and people of good will are sincerely concerned that political competition, if not carefully managed, could inflame existing divisions and potentially undermine the fragile peace that has recently begun to take hold in the region.
Last week’s attack on Tanko Rossi, director of outreach and mobilization for Senator Sunday Marshall Katung’s campaign organization, by yet-to-be-identified assailants, coupled with increasingly vitriolic exchanges on new media platforms by supporters of incumbent Senator Katung and loyalists to Senator Danjuma Laah – whom he defeated in the 2023 primaries – only served to confirm the worst fears of political observers. These worrying developments suggest a dangerous escalation in political tensions, raising serious concerns about the potential for violence if urgent measures are not taken to call the aspirants to order.
Clearly, unless the main contenders act quickly and decisively to rein in their supporters, promote restraint and emphasize peaceful engagement, the fragile stability in southern Kaduna risks being seriously undermined, with the possibility of the opening of another front further exacerbating instability in the region.
The last thing southern Kaduna needs at this delicate moment is a descent into political violence. The fragile calm communities are beginning to enjoy could easily be disrupted by politically motivated unrest, undoing hard-won gains and plunging the area into another form of instability. At a time when healing, reconstruction and confidence-building should take priority, any form of electoral conflict driven by provocative political conduct would not only be inappropriate, but would be profoundly damaging to the region’s path to lasting peace and development.
Governor Uba Sani, who has invested considerable effort and time in addressing security challenges in the area and has also implemented impactful development projects across the region, must and should understandably be concerned about the implications of what is fast becoming a bellicose contest for APC tickets. Political rivalry not only threatens to undo the progress made so far, but also casts a shadow on the stability of the area. Traditional rulers, community elders, the general population and friends of the region should be equally alarmed, given the consequences for peace, social cohesion and the broader image of the state. There is no doubt that political violence would severely damage the region’s hard-earned reputation in many ways.
Another compelling reason why Southern Kaduna urgently needs to put its house in order lies in the relatively high level of education of its population. This raises a troubling question: Why do a people widely considered highly educated consistently have difficulty managing their political affairs compared to other areas often described as less educated? These areas have demonstrated that what may be lacking in formal education has been made up for by stronger political discipline and the stabilizing influence of traditional institutions that demand respect. Unfortunately, the absence of such cohesion in southern Kaduna appears to be contributing to the escalation of tensions. When compared to Zone One, where the selection of applicants was handled with remarkable ease and minimal friction, the contrast is stark. Even in Zone Two – where former senator Shehu Sani and Yusuf Zilani, former speaker of the Kaduna State Assembly, are locked in a fierce competition for the senatorial seat – there have been no reports of violence, despite the intensity of the political rivalry.
The persistent conflict between Senator Sunday Marshall Katung and Senator Danjuma Laah – who notably broke his jinx by becoming the first to win the seat consecutively – appears to be rooted less in ideology and more in ego and lingering revenge. Clearly, the idea of “consensus” is increasingly unrealistic under current conditions. And the argument advanced that the stakes are unusually high because virtually all political heavyweights have defected to the APC, leaving “no other viable platform” for the contenders to pursue their ambitions, does not stand up to scrutiny.
From 1999 until very recently, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) dominated the region politically, and virtually all of Southern Kaduna’s prominent figures: Senator Isaiah Balat, Colonel Yohanna Madaki, Dr. Harrison Bungwon, Eng. Stephen Shekeri, Sir Patrick Yakowa, Nenadi Usman, Senator Haruna Aziz, among others, were operating in the same political space. The key difference, however, was their level of organization and willingness to function as a team. Despite their disagreements, they managed to close ranks, negotiate, and agree to share positions so as to preserve unity. By contrast, it is difficult to imagine Katung and Laah putting aside their differences to engage in meaningful dialogue, a reality that continues to deepen divisions in the region.
Following the clarification of the APC National President, Prof. Nentawe Goshwe Yilwatda, that a “consensus ticket requires the consent of all aspirants” to be valid, it is safe to conclude that the consensus option between Katung and Laah is indeed unrealistic. The main contenders are so deeply opposed to each other that the likelihood of mutual agreement is practically non-existent; indeed, each seems more inclined to allow itself to be defeated than to resign in favor of the other. In such a tense climate, the adoption of direct primaries can only intensify the crisis rather than resolve it.
The deeper concern, however, lies not only in the conduct of the primaries, but also in the fear of a post-primary reconciliation. Experience has shown that in contests of this nature, the consequences can be just as contentious as the primary process itself, with the defeated camps often denying support to the emerging candidate. This pattern was evident in the 2023 elections, and all indications are that if the various primaries are not handled carefully, history could repeat itself with even more damaging consequences.
In this increasingly senseless and self-destructive rivalry, it is essential that the various aspirants recognize a simple but inevitable political reality: victory in the primaries is only the first step, and not the final destination. Whoever ultimately secures the ticket will still depend to a large extent on the goodwill, structure and electoral base of their opponents to prevail in the 2027 general election. Alienating rivals and their supporters may ensure a short-term victory, but risks creating deep fractures that could prove costly at the polls. Ultimately, no candidate can succeed alone; unity, reconciliation and strategic collaboration remain indispensable for electoral victory.
The assumption that other parties do not represent a real threat is not only complacent but downright delusional. In 2023, Labor Party candidates such as the Hon. Donatus Mathew, who won the Kaura Federal Constituency seat, and the late Hon. Ekene Abubakar Adams, who triumphed in the Chikun/Kajuru federal constituency, defeated more established politicians – in fact, they were ranking members – of the then dominant PDP in what many had considered safe strongholds. These results should serve as a warning: political structures offer no guarantees in the face of voter dissatisfaction and internal divisions. If current aspirants persist in their acrimony and fail to unite, they risk suffering similar political upheavals at the hands of a determined and opportunistic opposition.
There is no doubt that Senator Sunday Marshall Katung has recorded more visible success than Senator Danjuma Laah in terms of attracting federal presence in Southern Kaduna, particularly with the establishment of the Federal University in Kachia and the Federal Medical Center in Kafanchan. He also maintained a more productive working relationship with Governor Uba Sani than Laah had with former Governor Nasir El-Rufai. However, despite these achievements, many people in southern Kaduna still hold Laah in high regard for his perceived courage in defending the area’s interests during the height of the security crisis, when tensions were at their peak.
That said, this is where the comparison ends. Politics, being deeply emotional and influenced more by perception than performance, continues to shape loyalty and voting in complex ways. Laah enjoys strong popular support and is widely seen as more accessible and closer to the people, which increases his appeal among ordinary voters. In contrast, Katung, despite his successes, is often seen by his critics as less approachable, with a perception of arrogance affecting his public image.
These conflicting perceptions will play a decisive role in determining who ultimately secures the ticket – but, more importantly, whether Southern Kaduna prefers unity to another round of political self-destruction.
The APC’s internal conflict resolution mechanisms must, moving forward, be set in motion to manage what is essentially an elite rivalry and to prevent escalation towards the grassroots. By failing to timely mediate disputes or impose binding reconciliation frameworks after primaries, the party risks allowing personal ambitions to impact its fortunes.
The police must also investigate the attack and read the riot act to politicians.
Going forward, if the Southern Kaduna Senatorial Zone fails to manage its political affairs and restore order among its key stakeholders, it risks inviting direct intervention from the APC state leadership, especially Governor Uba Sani. When this happens there should be no complaints about interference from other areas. It is therefore in the interest of all actors involved to exercise restraint, embrace dialogue and resolve their differences before the situation escalates to the point where external arbitration becomes inevitable.
Postscript: Senator Katung and Senator Laah would do well to carefully watch their political backs. Wilson Iliya of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is steadily emerging as a serious contender, gaining ground in ways that should not be ignored. If the current wave of division within their camp continues unchecked, it could create just the opportunity an opposition figure like Iliya needs to consolidate support and mount a credible challenge.
Ado writes from Kaduna, Kaduna State
