JamzNG Latest News, Gist, Entertainment in Nigeria
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an 80 percent chance that El Niño conditions will occur between June and August and a 90 percent chance that they will occur later.
“This update is important because El Niño is a key driver of global weather and climate patternssaid WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo. “El Niño’s footprint spreads far beyond its source in the Pacific Ocean, impacting agriculture, energy supplies, trade, water resources, supply chains and livelihoods across the region.”
At 6°C above average, tropical Pacific Ocean temperature readings are fueling concerns that this El Niño could cause excessive heat and devastate vulnerable and unprepared communities around the world.
“The world must treat this as an urgent climate warning,” stress UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, reacting to the WMO warning.
The last El Niño in 2023-2024 was one of the five strongest El Niños ever recorded and played a role in the global temperature record set in 2024, Saulo said.
“There is no evidence that climate change is increasing the frequency or intensity of El Niño events,” according to the WMO, but it could magnify the associated impacts as warmer oceans and atmospheres provide more energy and moisture for extreme weather events such as heat waves and heavy rainfall.
Preparation for El Niño
“We understand El Niño; we can prepare better for El Niño thanks to the science and investment of many countries that have to prepare well,” the WMO chief told reporters in Geneva. “But in the midst of El Niño, there are extreme events and these extreme events require more [investment].”
Together with weather agencies around the world, WMO’s role in the coming months will include monitoring conditions to inform decision-making by governments, humanitarian agencies and other climate-sensitive sectors.
“Seasonal forecasts and early warnings are critical to saving lives and reducing the impact on our economy and communities,” stressed Saulo.
El Niño and La Niña explained
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the most powerful natural climate patterns on Earth.
El Niño is characterized by warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. It usually occurs every two to seven years and lasts about nine to 12 months.
It generally begins to develop between March and June and reaches peak intensity between November and February, with impacts on global temperatures usually most pronounced in the second year after development.
ENSO events fall into four categories: weak, moderate, strong, or very strong. “Even a moderate El Niño makes some weather and climate extremes more likely,” the WMO said.
