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On Monday, Albertans will vote in a provincial referendum on a series of questions about the province’s future, and the question attracting the most attention is whether or not to hold a general election. Second separation referendum; A current Ipsos poll suggests Albertans would reject that possibility, with just 23 per cent saying they would vote to trigger a second vote and 70 per cent saying they would vote to remain part of Canada. But the results on the other nine themes – immigration, federal programs and greater provincial autonomy – are less certain.
Just looking at immigration related questions, Ipsos voting Research conducted in September found that a majority of Albertans support giving their province more control over immigration (65 per cent) and denying access to federally funded programs to people who do not have legal status in Canada (59 per cent). In our poll, we tested support for the concept, not the actual referendum question, so the results reflect how Albertans feel about these issues in general.
But most interestingly, Albertans are not the only ones who feel this way. In fact, Canadians outside of Alberta are more likely to support this proposal than Albertans.
Currently, 74 per cent of Canadians outside Alberta support giving their provinces more control over immigration, and 67 per cent support denying access to federal programs to those without legal status. This shows that Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has captured the mood of Albertans and society at large. A national debate on immigration is likely to follow, especially if Alberta’s referendum provides majority support for some of the policy proposals.
Indeed, former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, himself a federalist and one of the most vocal opponents of the separation question, called for such a debate, and there is increasing evidence that the Canadian consensus on immigration is now a ballot box issue.
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This could put the Alberta government at odds with Premier Mark Carney’s government.
Federal immigration minister recently beckoned that Canada plans to open up its immigration targets to allow more immigrants, although housing affordability remains a concern. Other concerns remain, as polls consistently show that affordability is a key issue. And Alberta is now proposing to wrest control of immigration from the federal government and create two classes of social support – one for those without status, and another for those with status. Our poll shows that Canadians agree with both propositions.
Overall, society is pondering how we should approach immigration – and the costs associated with it – amid a housing and affordability crisis. Meanwhile, Smith has urged Albertans to vote “yes to nine,” arguing that immigration costs are prohibitive, while Carney has called on Albertans to vote no. While they share similar views on Alberta’s future in Canada, they differ in how they approach immigration, although they share similarities on issues such as pipelines and supporting the growth of Alberta’s energy industry.
Remarkably, especially for a Liberal premier in Alberta, Albertans viewed Carney very favorably, while they viewed Smith less favorably. But on immigration and provincial rights, Smith appears to share the views of most Canadians, not Carney.
Whatever happens tomorrow, Alberta’s referendum will rock Canada. Separatist groups in Alberta have made it clear that they will not let the issue go by and will treat the outcome of the “stay or leave” vote as a permanent decision in their project, so the issue is unlikely to go away quickly, whatever the outcome. The debate over Alberta’s future within the federation has clouded how the federation would act if it decided to stay.
If Smith wins a majority on some or all of the “nine other questions,” we might expect him to believe he has a mandate from the people to act. He may try to work with other premiers to raise the issue with the federal government and gain more direct control over immigration and provincial rights from Carney.
He will have an ally in Quebec’s Premier-elect, Paul St.-Pierre Plamondon, who has vowed to use the early days of his term as leader of the separatist party to advance the province’s interests, having postponed a secession referendum until President Trump leaves office.
During Quebec’s recent provincial campaign, so did the incoming premier promised to reduce the number of immigrants allowed into the province, and seek greater powers than Quebec already enjoys through a 35-year-old agreement that gives Quebec more control over immigration than most other provinces. It’s a strength Smith also seeks for Alberta.
Smith also has reason to butt heads with Ottawa. Some members of his own party feel he has not gone far enough on the separation. They opposed his promise not to revisit the issue if Monday ends with a vote for the status quo, and some separatist supporters vowed to oust him at the next leadership review. He has campaigned vigorously for a strong Alberta in a united Canada and said he voted “no” on the question. But he voted “yes” on the other nine. If this separation question is designed to appease his base, the other nine questions may reveal his true ambitions: to gain more control for Alberta over immigration, rein in costs, and ensure that only those legally permitted to be in Alberta receive taxpayer-funded services.
The results of these questions, not just for Albertans but for all Canadians and beyond just Alberta’s future in Canada as a province, are perhaps the most important issues to emerge from tomorrow’s election, and the issues that will be debated across Canada in the next year and beyond.
