Reports say heatwave could kill 31,400 people in Nigeria, advising government on preventive measures

A newly released report projects that Nigeria may record about 31,400 heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 due to the strong El Niño phenomenon.

This could be the world’s highest number of additional heat-related deaths, according to researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab who project that a super El Niño could cause an estimated 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide over a six-month period.

Nigeria is estimated to account for nearly half of the estimated 66,800 deaths in four African countries identified as the most vulnerable.

They urged governments in affected countries, including Nigeria, to strengthen hospital preparedness, set up cooling centers, provide early warning and protect workers outdoors to reduce the risk of death from extreme heat.

According to the researchers, Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad are expected to experience the highest burden of heat-related deaths in Africa, with Sudan expected to record 17,500 additional deaths, followed by Niger with 10,000 deaths and Chad with 8,000 deaths.

Nigeria, with an estimated population of 237.5 million, is expected to have the world’s highest heat death toll in a super El Niño scenario, they said.

Super El Niño refers to a particularly strong El Niño episode, a rare climate phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal, affecting weather patterns around the world.

Researchers link the region’s vulnerability to expected temperature increases in the Sahel, coupled with poverty, unreliable electricity and limited access to cooling facilities.

Explaining the risks facing Nigeria, the researchers noted that more than 60 percent of the country’s population is expected to live below the national poverty line by 2025, while frequent power outages could limit households’ ability to cope with extreme temperatures, even when there is an electricity connection.

They say poor communities are generally more likely to suffer heat-related deaths than rich communities exposed to similar temperatures because they have fewer resources to protect themselves.

In a related development, Europe, the world’s fastest-warming continent, experienced 50,000 heat-related deaths this summer, which turned out to be the region’s hottest on record, with new highs recorded in several countries amid recurring heatwaves.

This year’s death toll exceeds the previous record of 29,000 heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022, according to two papers in the journal Nature Health.

Italy, France, Spain, Germany and the UK suffered the largest number of deaths this summer due to hot conditions, according to estimates made by a team of scientists at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, as well as the universities of Copenhagen, Venice and Bern.