ANALYSIS… THE CNG REVOLUTION: Exposing the rhetoric Vs the reality of Nigeria’s energy transition

When President Bola Tinubu announced the removal of fuel subsidies by 2023, his government’s switch to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) was touted as the country’s next big leap. A cleaner, cheaper and more sustainable alternative to petrol and diesel.

But more than a year later, the statistics tell a sad story. Nigeria, a country of more than 200 million people, has fewer than 50 operational CNG compression stations. The figures, released by the Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Farouk Ahmed, show a huge gap between ambition and infrastructure.

Speaking at the recent NAEC summit in Lagos, Ahmed warned that the pace of CNG development in Nigeria is very slow, despite the government having issued major declarations regarding the shift to the greener fuel. He revealed that although there are around 3,000 cooking gas (LPG) refilling factories across the country, there are only 50 CNG factories. This figure is woefully inadequate for the government’s vision of national adoption.

Meanwhile, the Federal Government continues to regard the CNG effort as a success story. According to Presidential CNG Initiative officials, more than 100,000 gasoline-powered vehicles were converted to CNG in the past year, and more than 60 fueling stations are “operational” nationwide, and another 175 are reportedly “in operation.”

However, the situation on the ground paints a different picture. Motorists in cities such as Lagos, Abuja and Benin still queue for hours at the few functioning CNG stations. Prices are far from stable, with a standard cubic meter now selling for between ₦380 and ₦450, almost double the price a few months ago.

For an initiative intended to ease the pain of subsidy removal, CNG is fast becoming another privilege rather than a favor.

The reality is that the gap between rhetoric and reality is deeper than infrastructure. This includes financing, regulatory clarity and investor confidence. The Nigerian gas sector, despite its enormous potential, remains a victim of policy inconsistencies. Successive governments have over-promised but under-delivered, introducing bold energy roadmaps without the necessary infrastructure, incentives or political will to implement them.

Ahmed’s candor at the summit was a rare moment of honesty in government circles. He called for urgent diversification of Nigeria’s energy mix and increased private investment in gas infrastructure, and stated that “a constructive approach in developing other energy sources will have the potential to enable sustainable economic growth, create jobs and expand the country’s revenue base.”

But such investments will not occur if policy uncertainty remains. Investors are wary of a regulatory environment that changes with each government, a pricing system that lacks transparency, and a gas policy that emphasizes political symbolism but does not deliver good results.

The current administration must also confront the class and regional disparities embedded in its energy policy. Although CNG expansion is more visible in urban centers in the southern region, rural areas and northern regions are still largely excluded. A true national energy transition cannot be built on urban convenience.

Then there is the cost barrier for ordinary Nigerians. Converting a petrol engine to CNG costs between ₦500,000 and ₦1.2 million. This amount is nearly impossible for the average commercial driver who is already battling inflation and poor earnings. Without affordable financing options or conversion subsidies, CNG adoption will remain limited to fleet owners and government projects.

The energy transition must be more than just a media narrative. Countries like India and Brazil built their CNG economies through large public-private partnerships, price stability, and broad consumer incentives. In contrast, Nigeria is attempting to leap into the future thanks to press releases and pilot projects.

To truly gain citizens’ trust, governments must close the credibility gap quickly. This means accelerating investment in CNG infrastructure, simplifying regulations, ensuring price stability, and meaningfully engaging the private sector. Most importantly, he must show results, not rhetoric.

Until then, the CNG revolution in Nigeria will remain just that: a revolution spoken, unseen.