Fuel Lines and Fault Lines: How the War in Iran Triggered…

The war in Iran has shaken energy markets, sparking a crisis far beyond the battlefield. This geopolitical clash has exposed flaws in fuel production, refining and distribution. Fortunately, the Dangote megarefinery has helped Nigeria.

At the center of the upheaval is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor through which nearly a fifth of global oil and gas moves. With traffic severely limited, the impact goes beyond rising prices. In many parts of the world, the problem is no longer affordability but absolute availability.

A clear pattern is emerging. Countries with weak currencies, low reserves and heavy fuel imports are the hardest hit. In these nations, the crisis means empty gas stations, rationed cooking gas, grounded flights and slowing economies. Nigeria, however, is charting a different path, defined by strategic resilience and growing self-reliance, not vulnerability.

■ A world divided by energy vulnerability

In South and Southeast Asia, tension is already acute. In Pakistan, which imports more than 80% of its oil, authorities have moved quickly to save fuel. Schools were closed, public workers were sent home and commuters were asked to limit their travel.

Long queues stretch across major cities such as Karachi and Lahore as petrol stations struggle to keep up with demand. Prices have risen in recent days, with knock-on effects on transport, trade and sports.

Sri Lanka, still recovering from the 2022 financial crisis, has returned to familiar but painful measures. Fuel rationing has been reintroduced through a QR-based system that strictly limits weekly consumption. For families already under pressure, the result is a renewed cycle of queues, uncertainty and rising costs of living. Fertilizer import disruptions have also raised concerns about food inflation, linking the energy crisis to broader economic instability.

In Nepal, daily life is turned upside down. Liquefied petroleum gas, essential for cooking, is in short supply. Families wait hours for partially full cylinders; others resort to firewood or electric stoves. Nepal’s supply problems predate the conflict, but the global shock has exposed further weaknesses. In the Philippines, LPG shortages worsen as stations close as authorities urge conservation and seek more imports.

Vietnam and Thailand present contrasting but significant cases. In Vietnam, rising diesel prices put a strain on airlines, manufacturers and logistics. In Thailand, a surge in demand for diesel has strained supply, prompting rationing and emergency measures. In East Africa, Kenya faces ongoing shortages, with supplies running out in cities and rural areas. In Haiti, where insecurity fuels shortages, the effect is the same: scarcity, hardship and economic tension.

These cases demonstrate that nations without refining capacity remain vulnerable during global crises.

A snapshot of the global situation further illustrates the scale and urgency of the upheaval. Across continents, countries are grappling with varying degrees of fuel shortages and supply instability. In South Asia, Sri Lanka continues fuel rationing while Pakistan faces severe shortages characterized by long queues and rising prices. India, despite its size, reportedly holds only a few days’ worth of fuel reserves, highlighting underlying vulnerability.

In Africa, South Africa reports relative stability, but many stations run dry pumps, indicating supply chain stress beneath the surface. Across Europe, the UK has issued fuel shortage warnings, while Germany and France face rising fuel costs and reduced supply.

Major global economies are not immune. In the United States, authorities are responding with strategic measures to stabilize supply, while China accelerates inventory-building efforts to safeguard against prolonged disruptions. In East Asia, Japan and South Korea are closely monitoring reserves as the crisis unfolds.

This is now a truly global energy shock, affecting both developed and developing economies. Notably, this marks approximately 35 days of blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring both the persistence of the disruption and the growing pressure on global supply chains.

Nigeria: An Escape Route with Strategic Implications: The Emergence of the Dangote Refinery
Nigeria seems, at first glance, to fit perfectly into this category of vulnerable countries.

Despite being Africa’s largest oil producer, the country has historically depended on the import of refined petroleum products. For decades, this paradox has limited growth, strained foreign exchange and exposed the economy to shocks.

Today, that story is changing, decisively.

The Dangote refinery marks a turning point for Nigeria and Africa. Providing the majority of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel domestically, it reshapes Nigeria’s energy landscape. It achieves what years of politics have failed to achieve: reliable, large-scale refining, insulating the economy from global volatility.

While many nations grapple with shortages, Nigeria maintains relative stability. There are no nationwide queues, closures or emergency rationing seen elsewhere. This resilience is not random but comes from private investments aligned with national priorities.

In addition to stability, the refinery offers broader opportunities. It conserves foreign exchange, improves energy security and paves the way for Nigeria to export refined products. Nigeria could become a regional energy anchor amid global uncertainty.

More than infrastructure, the Dangote refinery demonstrates that Nigeria can implement complex industrial projects that produce real national benefits.

But this momentum needs to be exploited further.

The Nigerian government now has a unique opportunity to build on this momentum by accelerating its broader industrialization journey. Energy security must serve as the backbone for a new phase of economic transformation, prioritizing agriculture, textiles, manufacturing and energy infrastructure.

In agriculture, a stable fuel supply can reduce production and transportation costs, while increasing food security and exports. In the textile sector, reliable energy can boost domestic production and reduce dependence on imports. In the manufacturing sector, constant availability of fuel and energy can increase productivity, attract investment and create jobs on a large scale. In the energy sector, sustained investment is essential to complement refining earnings and ensure industries operate efficiently and competitively.

A national summit on energy and industrial development is timely and necessary. The Dangote refinery shows what is possible. The next step is to replicate this success across all key sectors.

■ The new map of energy insecurity

The evolving situation highlights a deeper shift in how energy security should be understood. For decades, crude oil production has been considered the primary measure of energy strength. The current crisis proves the opposite. As a result, all derivatives of petroleum products that serve as intermediate raw materials in the “Asian Tiger” industries, such as helium, sulfur, and aluminum, have faced supply challenges.

What matters most is not just the production of oil, but the ability to refine, store and distribute it domestically. Countries that control these measures handle shocks better. Nigeria’s evolving experience offers a clear lesson: past dependency is costly, and strategic investments have vast potential.

■ Conclusion

The global energy crisis triggered by the Iranian conflict does not affect all countries equally. Across much of Asia and Africa, fuel shortages are halting transportation, industry and daily life, forcing governments into reactive measures and intensifying economic pressures. Nigeria, in contrast, is moving from vulnerability to strength. The Dangote Refinery now hedges against global disruption and promotes long-term economic transformation.

More importantly, it signals a new direction not just for Nigeria, but for Africa. The importance of building national capabilities, investing in industrial infrastructure and reducing dependence on external supply chains is now unequivocal. The lesson is clear: in an era defined by geopolitical uncertainty, true energy security lies in self-sufficiency, industrial capacity and strategic foresight. Nigeria has taken a decisive step in this direction. Now is the time to boldly build on this foundation – expanding industrialization across agriculture, textiles, manufacturing and energy – to reclaim not only energy independence, but lasting economic prosperity for generations.

Dan D. Kunle

April 4, 2027

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