IMF Review of GDP Forecast 2025 Nigeria, Project Growth 3.4%

International Monetary Monetary (IMF) has visited the growth of the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 2025 Nigeria.

The Bretton Woods Institute has projects 3.4 percent expansion in the country’s real GDP for this year.

On April 22, MF projects that the Nigerian economy will grow by 3 percent this year, compared to the 3.2 percent estimated in October 2024.

This decision was achieved after the IMF Executive Council concluded consulting Article IV 2025 with Nigeria.

The IMF IM article consultation is a routine review of the performance and economic policy of a country, providing assessments and recommendations for improvement.

In a report entitled: “IMF Staff Completed 2025 Mission Article IV with Nigeria” released on Wednesday, the agency also projects that inflation will continue to fall in the medium term, quoting a sustainable macroeconomic policy and the expected coordination in retail fuel prices.

“The Nigerian authorities have implemented major reforms over the past two years which have increased macroeconomic stability and increased resilience,” IMF said.

“The authorities have eliminated expensive fuel subsidies, stop monetary financing from fiscal deficits and improve the function of the foreign exchange market.

“Investor confidence has strengthened, helping Nigeria succeed in utilizing the Eurobond market and leading to the start of the portfolio entry flow. At the same time, poverty and food insecurity have increased, and the government is now focused on increasing growth.

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“Growth is accelerated to 3.4 percent in 2024, driven mainly by increasing hydrocarbon output and the lively service sector. Agriculture remains calm, due to the challenges of security and shear productivity.

“Real GDP is expected to develop by 3.4 percent in 2025, supported by new domestic refineries, higher oil production and strong services. To the complex and uncertain external environment, medium -term growth is projected to float around 31⁄2 percent, supported by an increase in domestic reform.

“Gross and clean international reserves increased in 2024, with a strong surplus of the balance sheet and an increase in portfolio entrance flow. Reform to the FX market and foreign exchange interventions had brought stability to Naira.

“The stabilization and improvement of Naira in food production brought inflation to 23.7 percent of the years-to-year in April 2025 from an annual average of 31 percent in 2024 in the rebuilt CPI index issued by the Nigerian Statistics Bureau. Inflation must decline further in the medium term with sustainable macroeconomic policies and decrease in projected fuel prices.

“Fiscal performance increased in 2024. Income benefited from the depreciation of Naira, improvement of higher revenue and grant administration, which was more than increasing interest and overhead expenditure.

“Downside’s risk has increased with increased global uncertainty.

“Further decline in oil prices or increases in financing costs will affect growth, fiscal and external positions, damage financial stability and worsen exchange rate pressure.”

However, this notes that a decrease in security can have a negative impact on growth and worsen food insecurity.

By: Babajide Okeowo