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The very expensive missile duel over the past 24 hours in the Persian Gulf has confirmed one thing above all else.
A prolonged war could have a negative impact on the global economy.
In just one day and one night, Iran has achieved energy targets in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Israel. Likewise with its military defeat, or its leadership being beheaded after almost three weeks of bombardment.
One attack only, active Ras Laffan gas plant in Qatarusing just a handful of missiles alone would cause an estimated $26 billion in damage and, according to information, would take years to repair.
Iran’s latest war: Trump says he has no troops in Iran
Even smaller amounts of liquefied natural gas will now be marketed, raising prices. Fuel prices for European consumers have jumped 30%.
This represents a series of apocalyptic predictions from analysts and economists, and it comes after 24 hours of increased energy attacks. Imagine what those same weeks could do.
I sat down with one of Iran’s most senior diplomats, Esmail Baghaei, at the foreign ministry in Tehran to ask whether this was a new escalation policy from his government.
“You cannot expect a country under military aggression to restrain itself. You must direct your appeal to the aggressors, they are the ones who started it…” he told me.
Oil and gas facilities have been attacked before in this war, but the targets struck in the last day or two are of a different level of importance.
These attacks are not without reason. Israel has taken its attacks against the Islamic Republic to a new level air strikes on Iran’s southern Pars gas field and Iran responded without hesitation.
Not suprisingly Donald Trump issued a panic-stricken post ordering Israel not to attack the gas fields again and sternly warning Iran against doing the same.
I asked Baghaei whether rising concerns globally would provide an opportunity for diplomacy to succeed and for all parties to take a step back. Is there any peace that Iran can offer its enemies?
“Do you think it is realistic to offer peace to those who want to behead you? They are killing our elites. They are targeting our leaders. We are facing acts of aggression and terrorism and this has never happened before,” he said.
However, the US president is also reportedly seriously considering sending troops to secure the Strait of Hormuz. This would increase the possibility of war lasting weeks, even months.
If Iran is able to maintain its potential missile arsenal, this could spell disaster for valuable energy installations in the Gulf and also have a devastating impact on the global economy.
This is about as thoughtful as a shootout in a crystal warehouse.
Oil, gas, helium, plastic and fertilizer prices have soared. But we may not have seen anything yet and if the doomsday scenario plays out as predicted, we will all feel the impact.
