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Prince Charles Dickson Ph.D.
Nigeria is a nation of parties: literal and metaphorical. It is too vibrant a nation for monolithic politics. From the fiery debates on which Jollof Rice reigns supreme to the cultural pride of regional delicacies such as Amala, Tuwo and soups tied by proteins, the Nigerians are wired to reject the monotony.
This culinary diversity reflects the country’s political appetite: a lust for choice, competition and flavor. The idea of a single party system? Not plausible as a national consensus on the “best” dish. The presidential election results of 2023 and the political drama take place since then, they only strengthen this truth.
While it is a feast of fractured mandates, a look at the verdict of 2023, which is based on the court, Irev-Maligned-Non proves to be the landslide, only a smorgasbord of lessons. The figures clearly speak. President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Power obtained 8,794,726 votes (37%of the valid votes), strictly defeating Atiku Abubakar of the Democratic Party of the peoples (PDP) with 6,984,520 votes (29%) and Peter Obi of the Labor Party (LP) with 6.10133 (25%). Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) marked with 1,496,687 votes (6%). The victory of Tinubu was neither a swept nor an invincibility mandate.
In particular, the combined votes of Atiku and Obi (13 million) diminished the counting of Tinubu, underlining the self -defined defeat of a fragmented opposition. If Kwankwaso had aligned himself with Obi or Atiku had swallowed his ambition to support a single challenger, the APC socket could have taken place.
But not sugar: the failure of the opposition was not only tactical: it was existential. The PDP, once a giant that ruled for 16 years, now resembles a retire retirement house, while the wave of the LP, although impressive, was more based on the cult of the personality of Obi than on institutional depth.
The nnpp? A note on the foot of the regional page. In the meantime, 37% of Tinubu, the lowest share since 1999, exhibits a leader who governs with a fractured mandate in a nation in which 63% voted against him.
We see an geography of discontent with the nation cut in three ways, so that it has further diluted the domain of Tinubu. He won 12 states, the same of Atiku, while Obi has conquered 11 states more the territory of the federal capital (FCT).
This regional-nubbu division in the South-West, Atiku in the North-West/North-East, Obi in the South-East/South-South-Rela a divided but provocative nation against hegemony. In Lagos, the “Kingmaker” aura of Tinubu broke up while Obi torn the state, a symbolic blow to the invincibility of the godfather. In Kano, Kwankwaso’s Nnpp embraced the APC, showing that the North political machine is not monolithic.
But here’s the problem: the voting models of Nigeria are less on ideology and more identity. Ethnicity and religion still dictate votes, with the holidays that act as vehicles for regional champions.
The embrace of the South -est of Obi, a Christian Igbo, and the loyalty of the North towards Atiku, a Muslim Fulani, underlines this reality. The “national” victory of Tinubu? A business patchwork on the back, not a unifying vision.
For APC, it must be a collection storm or a rot, two years are a life in Nigerian politics. The 16 -year rule of the PDP collapsed in 2015 under the weight of arrogance and corruption.
Today, the APC faces similar vulnerabilities, even if new deserters parade. Since 2023, the party has absorbed governors, senators and influencers of the PDP and LP, a trend that has published as a strength. But the story warns the opposite.
The deserters of Nigerian politics are political nomads, guided by opportunism, not by ideology. Remember how governor Godwin Obaseki deserted from APC to PDP in 2020, only to the next feud with his new party. Or senator Dino Melaye, a serial deserter whose loyalty moves with the wind.
These “allies for stages” will dilute the cohesion of the party, the breeding of internal conflicts and political paralysis. The ranks of the APC swelling now resemble a crowded market, full of noise, low in trust. Is it a strategy of slut horses to implode the party from the inside? Perhaps. After all, a festival swollen with rivals becomes a theater of war.
It is also important to note that there is also the inertia of the opposition, more similar to the art of snatching the defeat from the jaws of the victory. While the APC faces with chaos guided by defection, the inertia of the opposition is equally evident.
In addition to criticizing the failures of the APC – insecurity that attends, economic ruin, corruption – the PDP and LP offer little innovation. Their playbook? Promises recycled since the 90s. Where are the bold visions for the 21st century crises of Nigeria?
Take youth unemployment: 53% of young Nigerians are out of work, but neither pdp nor LP have articulated a credible plan to exploit this demographic clockwork bomb. Where is the Marshall plan for renewable energy in a nation where 92 million are lacking in electricity? Or the project for health care in a country that loses doctors due to global brain exhausts? Instead, the leaders of the opposition recycle slogans such as “renovation” and “unity”, empty watchwords as a promise of the campaign.
The moment of 2023 by Peter Obi, fed by youth disillusionment, exposed the hunger for fresh faces. However, the post-electoral strategy of the LP has turned into legal theatricals and hype on social media.
In the meantime, Atiku, 77 years old, clings to his perennial candidacy as a relic, unaware of a nation in which 63% of the population is under 25 years old. The fatal defect of the opposition? Mixing the anti-APC feeling for the fervor in favor of the opposition. The Nigerians crave solutions, not slogan.
Space for analysts like us, it is the silent majority, the 36 million ghost voters and the invisible crisis of our democracy. They are perhaps the strongest message of 2023, the 36 million recorded voters who remained at home.
With only 24 million votes expressed (29% of 93 million registered voters), APathy obscured the enthusiasm. In 2015, the turnout was 44%; By 2023, he fell to a historical minimum. For many, politics seems a choice between “the devil and the deep blue sea”.
But apathy is not indifference: it is dissent. The Nigerians are protesting for a rigged system against them: an election of 2023 ruined by the suppression of voters, technical problems and accusations of judicial complicity. Why vote when the courts “correct” the “errors” of the people? Why engage when politicians exchange parties like track models change clothes?
This disillusionment is a Tinder box. If 2027 reflects the apathy of 2023, Nigeria risks a crisis of legitimacy, a government elected by a minority, which governs a ribolrant majority. The stakes? Not only the survival of democracy, but social stability in a nation where 70% live in poverty.
Still, Nigerian politics thrives on chaos and surprise. Today’s loser could be tomorrow’s director. President Muhammadu Buhari lost three elections before winning power in 2015. Peter Obi climbed by the darkness of LP to win 25% of the 2023 vote. Who is the next?
Look at young people. With 42% of the Nigerians under 14, the next generation is a sleeping giant. Movements like #endsar have shown their power and anger. A candidate who uses anguish, technology and youth social media could redesign the political map. Imagine a candidate “Zebra”, an outsider like #endsars activist, who can sing this energy in a presidential offer.
Or look at states. Governors such as Babajide Sanwo-Oell (Lagos) or Alex Otti (Abia) are building subnational bequests that could eclipse federal failures. A coalition of progressive governors could simply get around Abuja’s dysfunction. I think there are jolly characters and changes of play: the zebras in the room.
The kitchen is still hot: no democracy from a DISH. The political menu of Nigeria will never be a deal with a DISH. The current advantage of the APC is not a guarantee of the success of 2027, just as the opposition disorder is not permanent. In order for democracy prosperous, parties must evolve beyond transactional defections and tired rhetoric. Even voters must give up, transforming apathy into responsibility.
To the political class: adapt or perish. The young people are watching, the hungry are waiting and the ticking watch. Ai Nigeriani: the 2027 pot is cooking. Will you add your ingredient or do you let the others take the flavor?
At the beginning of the dance around 2027, a tough truth: in a nation in which Jollof rivalhs unleashes passion, political complacency is a recipe for disaster. The democracy of Nigeria, like its parties, thrives with vitality, non -monochromatic. The next act awaits – and the public is starving for change – Nigeria can win!
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