Not the Iran we thought it was: what has changed in the Persian Gulf? – Azu I also ryekweene

On paper, it seemed a discrepancy. Iran is not only one of the oldest and most affirmed places in the Persian Gulf, but also at least 75 times the size of Israel, with a population from nine to ten times larger. Dimensions in size, it is a match-up by David and Goliath of the present day, with ancient history directly from the part of Iran.
At the height of his kingdom, in particular under Ciro the Great (545-525 BC), the Persian Empire, the modern Iran, extended for Egypt, and its military power was unassailable. In more contemporary times, Iran defended himself against the aggression of Saddam Hussein during the eight-year-old Iran-Iraq war.
Sudden tide
Yet, from June 12, when Israel marked the Iran nuclear site and killed at least 14 atomic scientists and 16 best military officers, Iran’s response was a kind of humid absence. A trapped intelligence relationship of the White House suggests that, but for the intervention of President Donald Trump, the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khomeini, may have been killed in the recent Israeli strike.
In response, a burst of Iranian missiles was fired on Tel Aviv and Haifa, with civilian victims. This has perhaps been the most significant dent on Israel’s defense system over the past five decades. However, the answer was very below the notion of Iran as a nation of warriors and the nemesis potential nemesis of his early neighbor, especially after the fall of Hafez al-Assad of Syria.
Things went so bad for Tehran that, at some point, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu even said that Israel was “in full control of the Iranian skies”, a statement that Tehran could not deny.
What happened?
How has the powerful Iran lost its military base in such a magnetic way, so quickly? The weakening of Iran’s military force is not as sudden as it appears.
It is the result of years of isolation and economic sanctions, mainly guided by three suspicions: one, that the Shiite variety of Islam (and its allied franchises) subscribed by the elite to the power of Iran is the pillar of radical and extremist terrorist groups; Two, which is the main sponsor of at least two radical Islamic groups and the arches of Israel-Hamas (in the Gaza) and Hezbollah (in Lebanon); And three, that his nuclear enrichment program is not for peace, but for the war.
All three points are interconnected and, in 2015, the lack of progress on the third was the beginning of economic sanctions by the United States, Great Britain and France, among others, aiming and undermining Iran’s receipts from oil sales and weakening its economy.
But Iran has remained a great military force despite the sanctions. He cultivated closer ties with China and Russia, he made desperate attempts to diversify his economy and used fronts to sell his oil.
Burden of history
Throughout this time, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu wanted to hit. He put pressure on the United States to tighten the vine on Tehran and perhaps again an Israeli strike preventive, but his repeated affirmation that Iran was only “months, years or even weeks” from the final stages of obtaining the bomb, fell on a skeptical democratic house, if not indifferent.
After the debacle in Iraq, where the United States lost over 900 troops and spent over $ 2 trillions based on the defective intelligence that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, no democratic president, both Barack Obama and Joe Biden, had appetite for another war on a large scale in the Gulf of the Persico without a convincing reason.
Therefore, two things have changed that have changed the dynamics of power and politics in the Persian Gulf. Hamas, for a long time considered Iran’s proxy, attacked Israel on October 7, killing 1,200 Israelis and abducando 250. This act of terror not only transformed moderate elements in Israeli politics, but also hardened extremists as Netanyahu, who promised to crush Hamas and Hezbollah and made a heavy price pay.
Trump factor
When Donald Trump was elected president, a year after the outbreak of the Israeli war of the Hamas, the brand of the President of the United States of Diplomacy from Tweet and Deal, not to mention his close ties with Netanyahu, meant that Iran was on very thin ice. The stalemate in the negotiations between Iran and nuclear inspectors, including the expulsion of the veterans of the AIEA officials, has further raised suspicions about the statements of Iran according to which his nuclear program was for peaceful purposes.
Yet some argued that Tehran’s reluctance to cooperate and his Rigmarole were simply contracted the chips to relieve sanctions and repair his dying economy, which was still very far from the bomb.
Although the Wall Street Journal has recently reported that American intelligence still doubts the statements of Netanyahu of a steaming gun on Iranian nuclear enrichment, Tehran seems to have exhausted his card and the days of the old regime could be numbered.
Quote or not?
With President Trump who moves the direct involvement of the United States at war, I asked for a source in the Israel Foreign Ministry on Monday if it was a preventive strike, a move that the Nigerian government had sentenced in a statement during the week.
“It’s not a preventive strike,” replied the source. “It is a targeted military operation to remove a concrete threat after the pre -established negotiation period has passed. The objectives have been set: the nuclear program and the ballistic skills.”
What has changed
Here is how Israel has systematically weakened and significantly degrades the military capacity of Iran, especially in the last two years, forcing the Mullah to Tehran to take refuge behind the veil in what could prove to be a new decisive phase in the war in one of the most problematic regions of the world.
One, the regional allies of Iran-Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Bashar Hafez al-Assad in Syria-siring, were neutralized, rooted or forced to escape. The attack of Israel’s Curgerson on the members and affiliates of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria was particularly devastating last September. At least 13 members of the group were killed, while the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon was injured, revealing a serious violation of Hezbollah’s safety, causing panic in high places in Iran.
Although the Houthi occasionally threatened safety in the region, they were also significantly contained or missing, making Iran even more isolated and vulnerable.
Two, apart from the losses in the ranks of his delegates, Israel also carried out precise strikes on the Iranian military leadership, assassinating the members of the ranking of the Iranian military, including the head of the general staff of the Iranian armed forces, General Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, who is only a heartbeat of the leader of the Supreme, Ayatollah. The country’s air defense system was degraded and even if it managed to fire hundreds of missiles towards Israel, their power and impact have been largely limited.
Three, the economic sanctions have limited Tehran’s ability to modernize its military, while the support of its main ally, Russia, has been reduced by the war during Russia with Ukraine, leaving Tehran largely alone.
Improbable mediators
It is an irony that, in its moment of Travail, Iran is now looking for at Qatar and Egypt, two countries that has long despised, for mediation with Israel and the United States. Netanyahu has yet to respond to the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and, hopefully, which should keep it on the strict leash in its next conquest.
After centuries of military, cultural and geopolitical conquests, is the sun finally about to start on the gunpowder empire? “Or is there still a magical spell remained under the mullah turban?
*Isciekwene is the leadership and author of the book, Writing for Media and monetize it.