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Nigeria posed a trading surplus of $ 11.5 billion in 2024, marked the highest positive trade balance in more than a decade, according to data from the Nigerian central bank and the National Statistics Bureau. This continued the strong rebound in the country’s external trading position after two years of deficit during the Covid-19 era.
The figure shows that Nigeria exported goods worth $ 52.7 billion in 2024, while importing goods worth $ 41.2 billion. This 2024 performance was built on a successive surplus recorded in 2022 ($ 2.77 billion) and 2023 ($ 6.34 billion), reflecting the strengthening of export capacities and clutches that were tighter in import expenditure.
The last time Nigeria recorded a trading balance that was close to this level was in the early 2010s, when booming oil prices supported export income. Since then, economic shocks – especially the destruction of oil prices in 2015 and global pandemic – made the country a trade deficit in 2016, 2020, and 2021.
“The 2024 trading surplus highlights a shift towards recovery and increasing the stability of the external sector,” said a senior analyst. “This reflects a combination of higher crude oil revenues, increasing non-miny exports, and imported substitution policies that begin to produce results.”
Between 2020 and 2024, Nigerian imports declined from the peak of $ 60.5 billion in 2022 to $ 41.2 billion in 2024, showing successful efforts to reduce dependence on foreign goods. Meanwhile, exports rose from $ 35.7 billion in 2020 to $ 52.7 billion in 2024 – mostly driven by an increase in oil production and an increase in global commodity prices.
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Historically, Nigeria maintained a positive trade balance between 2008 and 2015. However, the economy fell to a trade deficit in 2016 and again in 2020 and 2021. Returns to the surplus since 2022 marked a prominent trend reversal.
Experts warn that while the trade surplus is encouraging, Nigeria must diversify its export base to maintain from external shocks. “We are still very dependent on crude oil. Sustainable growth will require increasing manufacturing exports and increasing the competitiveness of our non-miny sector.”
The trading surplus came at one time that Nigeria faced internal economic challenges, including inflationary pressure, exchange rate volatility, and slow growth. Nevertheless, an increase in external trade offers a buffer for foreign reserves and supports the stability of naira in the foreign exchange market.
With three years of successive trading surplus and the largest in more than a decade recorded in 2024, Nigeria seems to be on an optimistic path with carefulness towards external economic resilience.
By: James Odunayo
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