Understanding of the NIGERIAN NIGERIAN REPORT REPORT

In recent times, various NBS reports have raised questions from normal Nigerians who see documents as not a reflection of their realities. However, the experts said that the lack of understanding of the processes that lead to the relationship is mainly responsible for skepticism; Benjamin Umuteme writes.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of Nigeria was established following the merger of the Federal Statistics Office (FI) and the National Data Bank (NDB). This merger was part of the implementation of the general statistical plan (SMP), a program started by the Nigerian federal government with preparation financed by the World Bank in 2003.

Bureau’s work focuses on the production, management and dissemination of reliable socio-economic and demographic statistics for the country to support the decision-making process and the formulation of policies based on evidence.

The objectives of the Bureau are to generate, continuously and sustainable, socio-economic statistics that cover all the facets of development in Nigeria; collect, fill in, analyze and publish official statistics on economic, social, demographic and environmental conditions; conduct censuses and surveys across the country to collect complete data; Provide accurate and timely statistical information to help the government, researchers, private sector and international entities in the design, planning and evaluation of policies; Coordinate and standardize statistical activities to avoid duplication and guarantee comparability and quality of data.

Others are; maintain a national bank of national data and statistical infrastructure to act as a knowledge base; Assist in monitoring socio-economic programs such as the eradication of poverty and the development objectives for the evaluation of the impact; Promote the use of tic and modern technology in the collection and dissemination of data; and act as a connection between various government levels and international organizations on statistical issues.

Conducting surveys

The NBS conducts its surveys using modern methods focused on structured questionnaires digitally administered through tablets using the personal interview technology assisted by computer (garments).

For example, in the General Household Survey (GHS) and in the Nigeria Labour Force Survey (NLFS), the enumerators use tablets to conduct on -site interviews, allowing the loading of data in real time and quality controls by data publishers. The implementation of the survey generally provides for teams of interviewers supervised by a field supervisor.

The key steps in their investigation process include: sampling and selection frames, which involve the use of detailed sampling frames based on the data of the census of the national population and the integrated master’s sample. The areas of enumeration (EAS) are systematically sampled to represent different states and geopolitical areas. Replacement families can be randomly selected if the initially chosen families are not available or the participation of waste.

The field organization by the NBS is made up of supervisors and interviewers who lead interviews in EA championship. Generally, the teams remain for several days in each area to complete domestic and community questionnaires. Supervisors also lead quality control, additional interviews and collect community data together with families.

In addition, the investigation into the collection of data covers families and individuals, collecting global information on demographic data, work, income, agriculture and socio-economic indicators. Some surveys have multiple visits for family over time (Panel polls).

In addition, data management and quality insurance involves the acquisition of digital data, allowing controls and corrections of errors in real time. Data editors monitor charges and communicate with enumerators to guarantee data integrity. Before analysis, the data undergo cleaning and anonymization.

The Bureau also undertakes in continuous and panel surveys: the NLFS is conducted continuously throughout the year, producing national quarterly estimates and annual results at state level. Panel polls like the GHS follow the same families on several rounds to analyze changes over time.

The statistics office in order to carry out its work effectively, gives space to collaboration with its various partners such as the World Bank and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, adopting the best innovative poll practices and poll modules (for example, on corruption, genre, disabilities). And in terms of innovations, the bureau was not lacking as it uses new sampling methodologies, including maps of the digital enumeration area and sampling of the population survey on the grid, completing traditional approaches.

Inflation rates methodology

The consumer price index (CPI) is a macroeconomic indicator that provides a general measure of the variations of the average prices of goods and services commonly purchased by consumers compared to a basic period (the reference period of the price is 2024).

The inflation rate is calculated directly from the index. The inflation rate is the relative variation of the CPI between the periods. The inflation rate is shown on an annual basis (annual inflation rate) and month on month (monthly inflation rate).

CPI is built using the following key variables: weights derived from the estimates of domestic expenses (the reference period of the weight is 2023), the prices collected from points of sale selected between 36 states and FCTs (both urban and rural) and quantity of goods and services.

In the current CPI, there are 74 layers of the population, which are the urban and rural parts of the 36 states of Nigeria and FCT. The CPI basket has 242 layers of article, defined by the 2018 version of the classification of individual consumption based on the purpose (coicop). The 2018 version of Coicop has 4 levels in its hierarchy: divisions, groups, classes and sub-classes.

Experts speak

The economist, Adefolarin Olamilekan, said Blueprint Weekend in a chat that the lack of understanding of the methodology used by the bureau in arrival at its report is the reason why they seem not to believe in relationships.

Experts say that the NBS report is calculated in the temporal series. While appreciating the wonderful work done by NBS, Adefolarin said that the sudden change in the prices of goods and services seems to ruin the good work of the Bureau.

He said: “What we are saying is that we appreciate the NBS methodology of the influence calculation but does not capture the reality day by day, minute by minute dynamic of the variations of prices in Nigeria.

“The NBS methodology of the calculation of data is also far from the temporal series for the fact that the prices in Nigeria changes secondly. The NBS report on inflation is made in a swap. Which is in the city center, in the urban area, in the sub-urban or in the rural areas of Nigeria, the prices change dramatically to the whims, dealers, transporters, masters of the house among others.

“Unfortunately, in this part of the world, the data play little role in our decision -making process, in particular for economic issues. For this purpose we cannot blame the Nigerians if they do not feel comfortable with the NBS relationship on inflation, in particular with the current reality. A look at the food price, transport, the rent of the house and the shop, to the invoices of drugs and hospital in line with the NBS relationship.

Fulfill the electoral promises

To change the narrative, the economist said, governments at all levels must start keeping the promises of the campaign. Consequently, we must face the serious economic structural deficit that hinders companies and makes energy, road, safety and market access and multiple taxes expensive.

Once again, it is important to face an excess of middle men and unscrupulous men and women, whether they are transporters, traders, government officials, corrupt oil activities within the corridor of the value of the food supply chain.