El Niño is surging. Extreme hot weather can last for months

El Niño strengthened rapidly in the Pacific Ocean and increased the prospect of months of extreme heat, flooding, drought and severe weather around the world.

This phenomenon, which has been around for a long time, is expected to become “very strong” and reach its peak around the end of this year, according to new forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization. (WMO).

The probability that El Niño will last until February 2027 is now approaching 100 percent. Never before has the UN weather agency issued such a clear forecast for El Niño or colder conditions. La Niña.

Very big problem

And beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific there are other things to worry about. A large reservoir containing unusually warm water that could continue to trigger El Niño in the coming months.

In some areas of the Pacific, subsurface temperatures in July and early August were more than eight degrees Celsius (about 14 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal.

This combination leads to incredibly powerful climate events occurring on a planet that is already much hotter due to greenhouse gas emissions.

“El Niño is getting bigger before our eyes,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres he said in a press release, Thursday. “Science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are warming.”

El Niño is a natural climate pattern that usually develops every two to seven years, when waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm. That warming can alter atmospheric circulation thousands of miles away, altering rainfall and temperature patterns everywhere.

However, this El Niño developed against an unusual background. Ocean temperatures are already unusually warm, providing the basis for heat that influences natural climate cycles.

Scientists have not proven that human-caused climate change enhances or intensifies El Niño. But a warmer atmosphere and oceans can exacerbate the impact, increasing the heat and humidity that can trigger extreme weather.

The latest measurements show how fast events are currently developing.

That Niño Index 3.4a closely watched measure of ocean temperatures in the central tropical Pacific averaged 1.5°C above normal from May to July. In July, temperatures had reached 2°C, and weekly readings from late July to mid-August rose to 2.6 degrees.

The heat extends below the surface – a sign that the warming won’t last long and that El Niño still has plenty of fuel left.

Global pattern, uneven consequences

A very strong El Niño does not mean that every region will experience the same magnitude of disaster.

However, from September to November, forecasters predict above-normal temperatures across almost the entire surface of the earth.

Rainfall patterns also show typical El Niño characteristics, with a greater likelihood of heavy rains and flooding in some places and drought in others.

Other forces can complicate the picture. A positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole – a large-scale change in ocean temperatures – is expected to occur, while the tropical Atlantic is expected to remain unusually warm.

These overlapping patterns mean that the strength of El Niño cannot be translated into a precise weather forecast for a country. But collectively, these signals indicate a period of increased risk.

“El Niño means ‘little child’ in Spanish, but El Niño has the potential to have a major impact on societies and economies around the world.,” Celeste Saulo, head of WMOsaid. “We are already seeing the disruption and destruction caused by drought and flooding, and we expect these impacts to get worse as El Niño intensifies.”

Historic mobilization

The forecast has sparked an unusual response. It is the first time WHO has launched a mobilization of this scale with the national weather agencyseeks to strengthen forecasts and early warning systems when risks increase.

These efforts are intended to help governments and humanitarian organizations prepare for impacts on vulnerable sectors, including agriculture, public health, energy and water supplies.

“This extraordinary El Niño requires extraordinary preparedness and response,” said Ms. Saulo.

This underscores just how big an El Niño is yet to come. This phenomenon is already very strong and has not yet reached its peak.

The question is no longer whether El Niño will get stronger, but how much heat – and disruption – it will cause.