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Human activity causes the majority of forest fires across Europe, but their spread, speed and intensity are greatly influenced by hot and dry conditions associated with climate change and changes in land use.
More than 600,000 hectares of land have burned in European Union countries in the first eight months of 2026, according to the European Forest Fire Information System.
The area is below the area recorded in the same year in 2025 (the worst year on record), but far exceeds the 20-year average of around 280,000 hectares, and preparation for forest fires is key, UN agencies say.
The risks are increasing
Although most of the fires occurred in historically fire-prone countries such as France and Spain, extremely dry conditions meant that many regions in Western and Central Europe, including the UK and southern Scandinavia, experienced an increased risk of fire.
In the near term, the risk of forest fires could be exacerbated by the development of El Niño, a recurring natural climate phenomenon, which could further influence temperature and precipitation patterns and increase the likelihood of climate extremes.
Many countries with a history of forest fires are now experiencing more frequent and larger fires, over longer periods of time. At the same time, other countries that typically have cooler or wetter areas are also bracing for the possibility of more forest fires.
Burning Scottish forest
A forest fire broke out in the Cairngorms mountains in Scotland in mid-July. This area has experienced forest fires before, but due to very dry conditions this year, the fire penetrated the dry peat layer, causing hot spots and flames that could not be contained.
More than 500 firefighters battled the flames, with air support to extinguish the blaze – while bulldozers were deployed to dig firebreaks.
Strong winds pushed the unexpected flames towards the village of Nethy Bridge.
Evacuation order
Nine days after the outbreak occurred, Police Scotland declared a major incident and many of Nethy Bridge’s 600 residents were evacuated, including James MacEwan, who described worrying days without rainfall amid the growing blaze.
“We were very lucky that the wind was still blowing from the west and carrying the fire towards the hills, otherwise we would have posed a serious threat to property and possibly lives,” he said. “The downside is that this takes the fire into relatively inaccessible areas and makes it very difficult to extinguish.”
It has been more than a month since the fire started until the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service officially stopped fire crews.
Firefighters on scorched moorland in England try to extinguish the fire. (submit)
Preparing for the future
The risk now extends far beyond the Mediterranean, said Will Hayes, a researcher at the Leverhulme Center for Forest Fire, Environment and Society in the UK.
Concerns about growing bushfires have emerged in the Atlantic highlands of Ireland and Scotland as well as in other parts of Northern and Central Europe, he said.
“These areas are not becoming Mediterranean landscapes, but traditionally wetter and cooler areas are now more frequently experiencing windows where more and more vegetation is dry enough to burn and fires can spread,” Mr. Hayes warned.
“The public should not assume that wet or green landscapes are immune to fire. During dry, warm and windy periods, vegetation can become highly flammable, even in high elevations and northern regions.”
He advises avoiding campfires, barbecues and random ignition sources – such as matches – during high-risk weather, and following local fire warnings.
Assess risk
Wildfire preparedness is also important at the national level, Hayes said.
“Preventing forest fires is not just about firefighting services, but also about how the landscape looks managed before it burns,” he explained. “The risk of forest fires must be considered a land use, climate adaptation and public health issue, not just an emergency response issue.”
World Health Organization (WHO) Strategic Tools for Assessing Risk The (STAR) methodology allows public health authorities to collaborate with other sectors to quickly conduct strategic, evidence-based assessments of public health risks, including heat and wildfire risks.
Smarter preparedness
Countries such as Cyprus and Ireland recently completed their first assessment workshops, which used the STAR methodology to identify and prioritize urgent health hazards, from heat waves to forest fires.
This workshop provides a foundation for smarter and more strategic preparedness and emergency preparedness investments.
WHO has held 38 national strategic risk assessment workshops in Europe since 2018, and its STAR is recognized as one of the core elements of international health regulations (IHR) and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.
Increasing threat to public health
Tanja Schmidt, WHO Europe’s preparedness program manager in the health security division, said extreme heat and forest fires were no longer just environmental emergencies.
“They increase public health threats that directly impact public health as well as the health system,” he said.
“Across the region, countries are increasingly using national risk assessments to understand the risks posed by climate change, identify cascading impacts and prioritize preparedness actions. Ultimately, this helps protect communities, prioritize the most vulnerable and ensure that health systems are ready to respond.”
Learn more about the WHO risk assessment tool Here.
