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Less than a quarter of Albertans support a binding vote on secession, but support for the other nine questions in Monday’s referendum may be higher, according to a new survey.
An Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News shows seven in 10 Albertans say they plan to vote for Alberta to remain a Canadian province in the upcoming referendum, holding steady from a previous poll conducted in September.
The proportion of voters who said they would vote for Alberta to begin the legal process of holding a binding referendum on secession increased three percentage points from September to 23 per cent.
The highest support was given to men (27 per cent), those aged 35 to 54 (27 per cent) and those living outside Calgary and Edmonton (29 per cent).
“We saw only a quarter of people in Alberta say they expressed support for this, but there was quite a difference of opinion among the people we interviewed depending on where they live and their demographic background,” Darrell Bricker, chairman of Ipsos Canada, told Global News.
Ipsos conducted online interviews with 801 Albertans between October 13 and 16.
Only five percent of voters remain undecided and two percent say they will not vote, but Bricker said even if all respondents ultimately voted yes on referendum day, it would not be enough to trigger a vote split.
“Either only a quarter of the population decided they were going to vote yes. That’s not a small number. That’s a pretty large number,” Bricker said.
Premier Danielle Smith said that if the vote goes as polls suggest, she expects everyone to accept it and move on. The leaders of the independence movement opposed it.
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But the premier also asked Albertans to vote yes on the first nine questions, saying it would give him more leverage in negotiations over the province with the federal government.
“What we’re seeing is that status quo relationships with other countries is not something that’s popular in Alberta right now,” Bricker said. “They don’t see a solution to the status quo situation in seceding from the country. But I suspect some other questions will probably get them a majority on election night.”
The first nine questions relate to immigration and the constitution.
A previous poll conducted for Global News in September showed that the majority (76 per cent) of Albertans were aware that there were several questions in the upcoming referendum. Eighty-one per cent of Albertans said they planned to vote in the referendum and 62 per cent said they would vote on the 10 questions.
How to see the results?
Global News will have in-depth team coverage both on broadcast and online streaming.
Dallas anchors Flexhaug and Carole Anne Devaney will be joined by veteran political reporter and Ottawa bureau chief David Akin for analysis of the results, along with insights from a political panel hosted by anchor Blake Lough, and reporters on the ground.
Starting at 8pm MT until midnight, our coverage of the 2026 Alberta Referendum will be broadcast on Globalnews.ca, as well as on YouTube and our Global TV app available on Prime Video, Apple TV, Roku and select smart TV streaming services.
Starting at 9 p.m., the special will also begin broadcasting live on all Global News stations in Alberta.
The accuracy of Ipsos polls containing online data is measured using credibility intervals. In this case, the overall poll of 801 Albertans was accurate to within +/- 4.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, if all adult Albertans had been surveyed. Credibility intervals will be wider among parts of the population. All sample surveys and polls may have other sources of error, including, but not limited to, coverage error, and measurement error.
– With files from Jace Maki and Karen Bartko of Global News
© 2026 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
