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“El Niño will also provide an extra boost to global temperatures,” he said WMO scientist Alvaro Silva. “We know that during El Niño years, global temperatures typically reach record levels.”
Key points
- El Niño has developed in the tropical Pacific
- Rapid development is expected from July to September
- El Niño usually peaks between November and February
- Countries are urged to act on the WMO warning, to save lives and livelihoods
According to WMO monthly Global Seasonal Climate UpdateStrong El Niño conditions are expected to develop rapidly from July to September, with “high confidence” in this forecast.
This is based on multi-model estimates from WMO partners showing “consistent and significant warming of ocean temperatures” across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with seasonal mean sea surface temperature anomalies expected to occur exceeds 2°C in the monitored area.
Regional variations
In the land sector, the outlook is equally worrying. “This is the first week of July, this is the start of what is usually the hottest month of the year,” WMO spokesperson Clare Nullis told reporters in Geneva. “However in June we have seen record-breaking temperatures in many parts of Europe; for example, Germany last weekend set a new national temperature record of 41.7°C.”
WMO update highlights “prolonged and dangerous heat wave” in the central and eastern United States through the end of this week and into Independence Day weekend, marked by the US National Weather Service.
Apart from that, there is also a big possibility drier than average conditions in Central America and the Caribbeanalong with North and South America.
Drier weather patterns are also expected to occur in parts of Indonesia and Southeast Asia during the rainy season, but wet conditions anticipated in the rainy season from September to December in East Africa. It is also possible that East Africa may be wetter than usual and face flooding because of it another important climate driver, the Indian Ocean Dipole, which the WMO describes as a possible development.
The El Niño warning has prompted “unprecedented mobilization” by the WMO, its members around the world and partners at regional climate centers, to support governments by providing timely forecasts to save lives and protect livelihoods, the agency said.
There’s no time to lose
“We have an opportunity to act in preparation for initial action. And this opportunity is narrowing in some areas,” said WMO’s Silva. For areas expected to experience drought, priorities include ensuring there is enough water for agriculture, energy production and other critical activities.
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO); they are one of the most powerful climate drivers.
This natural phenomenon is characterized by sea surface temperatures above average in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years and typically last between nine and 12 months. The disease often begins to develop between March and June, reaches peak intensity between November and February, and exerts its strongest influence on global temperatures in the year following its onset.
The impact of El Niño varies depending on its intensity, duration, time of year and also its interaction with other modes of climate variability, including the Indian Ocean Dipole.
Not all regions of the world are affected, and even within one region, the impact can vary. “Even when ENSO is neutral, extreme weather can still occur,” explained the WMO.
The agency classifies El Niño and La Niña events as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong.
“The intensity of El Niño is important because it increases the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events in many parts of the world… in addition to long-term climate change due to human activities,” emphasized WMO’s Silva.
