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Extreme weather forecasts are expected to hit roads, railways, waterways, ports and airports between 2051 and 2080, according to estimates. Climate Change Impact Assessment and Land Transport Adaptation: Towards a climate resilient transport systempublished by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE).
“The extreme hot weather currently occurring in Western Europe has highlighted climate risks and their impact on transport,” said a UNECE spokesperson UN News.
Some of these consequences occur in real time. Train delays or cancellations caused by hot weather in many countries, including Belgium, Denmark, France and the UK, stem from buckling asphalt, deformation of rails, failure of on-board air conditioning, non-functioning traffic lights, congestion of river navigation, slowing down of traffic to reduce kinetic pressure on tracks extended along cable lines and signal overheating and thawing, UNECE said.
Main findings
The report’s key findings show:
- The main risks to the transportation system include flooding, high temperatures, reduced snow, ice and icing, and sea level rise
- Transport infrastructure is it is estimated that it will have to face another 10 to 50 days per year with temperatures above 25°Cwith some regions experiencing up to 200 days per year above this threshold, increasing the risk of pavement damage, thermal expansion of bridge joints, rail deformation, and forest fires around the infrastructure.
- Recent estimates show that 71 to 89 percent of ports worldwide will be at risk of extreme marine storms by 2100
- Around five million Europeans and the transport infrastructure they rely on may face coastal flooding almost every year by 2100
‘Dramatic consequences’
The report found that economic losses from extreme weather could increase if action is not taken.
“Transport systems are vital to the smooth functioning of our societies and economies,” said UNECE Executive Secretary Tatiana Molcean, but “disruptions can have a devastating impact on transport. dramatic impact on society and cause huge financial losses.”
For example, during the Atlantic hurricane season in 2024, there would be losses of $232 billion, with specific damage to ports of $7.5 billion per year and annual systemic risks to maritime transport, trade and supply chains and global economic activity estimated at $81 billion and $122 billion, respectively.
Gloomy projections
The report also has gloomy projections for these regions, with heavy rainfall in areas already affected by extreme events, including the west coast of Norway, the Alps, the Balkans, northern Turkey, parts of Central Asia, the coast of British Columbia, and the east coast of the United States.
Conditions like these will increase the risk of landslides, embankment failure, excess drainage, and damage to road, railway and inland waterway infrastructure.
At the same time, the increasing risk of disruption to railway lines, including track deformation and signal overheating, is expected to impact Europe, where 90 percent of Europe’s E-rail network will be subject to an additional 10 days with temperatures above 25°C in the period 2050 to 2080compared to 1970 to 2000, and were exposed to an additional 10 days with temperatures above 32°C.
Adaptation ‘very important’
Adaptation measures provide many benefits, including avoiding or reducing economic losses, preserving investment, protecting operational continuity and enabling increased productivity, the report said.
“As extreme weather events are no longer a risk in the future but a reality today, adaptation of transport infrastructure is a must,” said UNECE chief Molcean.
It’s true, every dollar spent on climate adaptation generates more than $10.50 in economic, social and environmental benefits, according to the World Resources Institute (WRI).
In light of worsening climate projections, the report:
- Calls for strengthening adaptation efforts at all levels
- Encourage public and private entities to prioritize climate change adaptation and building resilience in transportation infrastructure
- Underlines the importance of adopting an iterative adaptation process based on analyzing current challenges, assessing future impacts and designing resilience-enhancing measures
- Recommends that policy and legal frameworks are key to increasing resilience, reducing operational risks and mitigating financial losses
Tools for dealing with temperature events
This report also maps the main land transportation networks and points in the region that require special attention.
It contains a series of temperature and precipitation projection maps at various thresholds to help governments and transportation professionals understand changing conditions and drive local-scale vulnerability analysis of transportation systems.
Look at the map Here.
What actually works?
UNECE’s new report also refers to this national mitigation strategy is underway:
- France: The national adaptation plan and warming trajectory initiative prepares the country for a temperature rise of up to +3°C by 2100 and involves a vulnerability assessment of 21,073 km of the national road network, along with the formulation of an adaptation strategy for 3,000 railway stations
- German: At 16,000m3 rock slide triggers closure of important freight route in Europe for seven weeks, climate impact analysis of debris flows on hillsides and mass movement of the country’s rail network using high-resolution hazard indication maps to evaluate risk exposure and help operators prioritize protective measures
- Portugal: A climate risk and resilience assessment for the 42 km Mondego Mobility System found the new Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) network identified adaptation measures to floods, landslides and forest fires, resulting in the implementation of high-temperature resilient pavement and a drainage system designed for 100-year flood flow rates
