INEC could spend $870 billion on 2027 general elections – Former Yakubu advisor

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) may need around $870 billion to conduct the 2027 general elections, a former chief technical advisor to the outgoing INEC president, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, and Prof. Bolade Eyinla, has predicted..

Eyinla, who made the disclosure in Abuja during the retreat on the Yiaga Africa 2027 Election Scenarios and Election Risk Manipulation Index (EMRI), said the cost estimate reflects Nigeria’s growing voter population, rising inflation and the logistical complexities of holding elections in the country’s vast and diverse terrain.

According to him, the projection – equivalent to about $600 million – was informed by past election spending and economic realities, making it a realistic forecast ahead of 2027.

“Considering inflation, currency fluctuations and the expansion of election operations, $870 billion is a realistic projection,” Eyinla said.
“On a per-voter basis, the cost is approximately $6.72, which is within international standards for transitional democracies.”

Eyinla, who served under Yakubu until the end of his term on October 7, described Nigeria’s general elections as one of the largest peacetime civilian operations, requiring immense financial, technological and human resources.

He recalled that Nigeria spent 109 billion naira ($662 million) in 2015, 189 billion naira ($619 million) in 2019 and 355 billion naira ($628 million) in 2023, adding that the steady increase corresponds to economic pressures and voter expansion.

It also noted that the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), Automatic Fingerprint Identification System (AFIS) and Automatic Biometric Identification System (ABIS), key technologies for credible elections, accounted for about 35% of the 2023 election budget and could cost even more in 2027.

“Sending personnel and materials to more than 200,000 polling locations, including remote, riverine, mountainous and conflict-prone areas, involves enormous security planning and logistics,” he explained.

“INEC depends on service providers for vehicles, vessels, aircraft and armed security escorts to ensure the safe and timely delivery of materials.”

Eyinla compared Nigeria’s projected electoral cost per voter with that of other African democracies, describing it as one of the lowest on the continent.

“In Kenya, the cost per voter was $25.9 in 2017 and $14.9 in 2022; Ghana spent $13.1 per voter in 2016 and $7.7 in 2020; South Africa’s 2019 and 2024 polls cost $5.1 and $7.1 per voter, respectively; the Democratic Republic of Congo spent between 14.37 and 22 dollars in 2023, while the 2023 elections in Liberia cost $22 per voter,” he said.

He highlighted that Nigeria’s cost efficiency, despite its population of over 93 million registered voters, 176,846 electoral units and 1,558 constituencies, is remarkable when compared globally.

Eyinla reminded politicians that under section 3(3) of the Electoral Law 2022, electoral funds must be released at least one year before elections, stressing that INEC’s 2027 budget should be allocated in fiscal years 2025, 2026 and 2027 to ensure prudent management.

He urged the Commission and the Government to ensure advance budget planning and transparency to maintain public trust and safeguard the credibility of future elections.

“Prudent management of resources is critical to ensure cost-effectiveness without compromising the integrity of elections,” he added.

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