RIPPPLESMETRICS: When violence soared, the Nigerian defense budget was left behind

Apart from the increasing insecurity and repeated mass murder in Nigeria, data from the Federation Budget Office revealed that the country consistently allocated less than 10% of its national budget to the defense sector over the past decade.

According to a report by Ripplesmetrics, the Nigerian defense budget as part of the total national budget has declined, down from 8.36% in 2015 to only 5.64% in 2025. While Naira’s allocation has actually increased in terms of nominal – from ₦ 375 billion in 2015 to record ₦ 3,095 trillion.

This trend raises questions about the government’s commitment to deal with the security crisis that rotates in the country. Over the past decade, Nigeria has witnessed the surge in violence that interrupted, ranging from rebel attacks in the northeast, bandits and kidnappings in the northwest, to clashes of communal farmers and violence in the central and southern belts.

For example, Nigeria ripples have continued to track for more than six months now since the Nigerian defense staff (CDS), Major General Chris Musa assured Nigeria that the famous bandit Kaying Bandit, Bello Turji will be captured or eliminated by the Nigerian military, but no end is fulfilled.

In just one year, mass killings in the highlands, benue, zamfara, and Kaduna have claimed hundreds of lives, with the remaining people and security forces are often overwhelmed or absent. Analysts argue that the budget trend reflects a deeper neglect of the reform of the security sector and capacity building.

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Between January and March, the first quarter of 2025, there were more than 3,000 deaths reported due to the unsafe crisis in Nigeria and more than 2,000 kidnappings, according to Beacon security intelligence.

The sharpest decline came in the 2024 and 2025 budget, where although defense allocation rose to ₦ 1,648 trillion and ₦ 3.095 trillion each, the sector of the national budget fell to 5.73% and 5.64%. This shows that while overall expenditure increases, defense does not compensate for other sectors in budget priorities.

Observers also show inefficiency and corruption in the military procurement system, with the reason that higher allocation is not always translated into stronger security in the field. However, many agreed that the shortage of these sector funds in the national emergency period sent the wrong message.

With 2025 to form a challenging year for national security, calls even harder for a comprehensive review of the Nigerian defense strategy – starting with the budget. Although the 2025 budget has increased more than N2 trillion than what was budgeted for the defense sector in 2024.

Recently, former Nigerian Vice President, Atiku Abubakar criticized the Federal Government for its handling of the deteriorating state security crisis, describing the recent murder and attack in the State of the highlands as evidence of the “total collapse” of national security under the current government.

By: James Odunayo

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