Gap to restore pre-pandemic housing affordability by 2036 in Calgary narrowing: CMHC – Calgary

Calgary is one of the few large cities in Canada whose supply gap to restore pre-pandemic levels of housing affordability has narrowed, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), due to years of record building.

According to the federal housing agency’s latest supply gap estimates report, Calgary needs between 4,000 and 5,000 additional units annually by 2036 to restore affordability.

“What we’re seeing is record housing construction over the years has resulted in a significant narrowing of that gap as builders scale up supply,” said CMHC principal economist for the Prairies, Taylor Pardy. “This has actually been reduced by half compared to our previous estimates.”

These figures translate to between 23,000 and 24,000 total housing starts each year over the next 10 years.

Current trends show Calgary is building about 19,000 new homes this year, CMHC said.

According to Pardy, the city recorded 27,000 housing starts last year alone as part of three consecutive years of record home building.

“Basically, we’re on track this year to maintain well above the 10-year starting average,” Pardy told Global News. “Overall, the market still looks quite strong.”

But housing advocates worry Calgary won’t be able to keep up with the needed development.

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Total housing starts have declined by more than 20 percent, according to CMHC, as projects started in the last three years have been completed.

CMHC said the slowdown in construction reflects rising vacancy rates, rising inventory, higher construction costs and “broader economic uncertainty.”

“As a result, we expect supply growth to moderate once the current development pipeline is complete,” CMHC said in its report.

Alex McColl, councilor at More Neighbors Calgary, told Global News that the narrowing supply gap is “a good thing,” but questioned whether the recent repeal of citywide rezoning will impact future housing development.

“So this council is riding on the momentum created by the previous housing strategy, and that’s good,” he said. “But repeal without replacement would reverse conditions that increase housing supply.”

The policy, which goes into effect in August 2024 after being approved by the previous city council, changes the city’s basic residential zoning to allow more types of housing on a single property, such as duplexes, rowhouses and townhouses, without requiring a public hearing.

The current city council voted to repeal the citywide rezoning earlier this year, and the policy change went into effect in August.

The move will see 306,774 residential properties across the city redesigned into low-density residential areas.

“A good start two years ago is now showing a good finish today, but we are also seeing the start decline,” McColl said. “This worries us because in two years’ time, our trends will continue to go in the wrong direction.”

Calgary Mayor Jeromy Farkas defended the move in a question-and-answer session with the local Rotary Club chapter on Wednesday.

“I don’t think, with the existing infrastructure, there’s enough to implement a universal approach,” Farkas said. “However, we must continue to build and we must continue to build housing that Calgarians can afford.”

According to a city spokesperson, building permit activity is also showing growth in new communities such as Ricardo Ranch and Alpine Park, and in established communities such as Haysboro and Tuxedo Park.

“Overall, Calgary continues to see strong housing development which helps achieve a balance between supply and demand,” the city said in a statement.

However, for lifelong Calgarians like Judy Klassen, record housing construction can be a cause for concern.

“I don’t like it,” he told Global News. “Look at all the condos they’re putting up. Even in the older areas, they’re building eight complexes on one lot.”

Meanwhile, Calgary city council is set to vote on an enhanced housing strategy with the scope narrowed from 98 recommendations to about 10, shifting its focus to non-market housing.

© 2026 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.