Global warming will exceed 1.5°C – but a deep and rapid temperature drop could still set it back

The recommendation is in 2026 Emissions Gap Report: Payback Point, published on Wednesday by the UN Environment Program (UNEP).

It outlines a A “lowest possible” overshoot scenario in which peak warming at mid-century is limited to 1.7 to 1.8°C.

Achieve this requires an 18 percent reduction in emissions by the end of the decade, 45 percent in 2035, and 69 percent five years later, compared with 2025 levels.

No surrender

“Going beyond limits is not giving up,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres he said in a message accompanying the report. “We can still keep it as small and short as possible – and get temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century.”

The report argues that there are more opportunities to improve actions.

Since its adoption in 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change, which set a target of 1.5 degrees, renewable energy is increasing rapidly, total energy supply from coal and oil is growing more slowly than expected, and climate policy has reduced emissions in many places.

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen clearly understands the devastating impact of inaction.

“Every one degree increase or one year increase in temperature above 1.5°C will increase climate impacts and riskssuch as deadly floods, heat waves and forest fires that hit many countries this year,” he said.

“So, we must make every effort to minimize peak warming and return to 1.5°C by the end of the century”, he added, stressing that “this is possible”.

The warmer the planet, the worse the impact

If current policies continue, warming could reach 2.8°C this century and will accelerate thereafter, the report warns.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries are required to submit national climate action plans, or NDCs, and even if all were implemented and similar efforts continued, warming would be limited to 2.6°C.

These results were worse than last year’s projections, the report said, as the United States withdrew from climate agreements and revised historical emissions estimates.

Meanwhile, nNew NDCs submitted since the last emissions report do not bring any changes.

However, returning to or below the 1.5 threshold is possible, especially as more evidence shows how climate policy has reduced emissions.

Take note, take action

The report calls for accelerated implementation of the goals outlined for the first time Global Inventory (GST) – a process held from 2021 to 2023 to assess collective progress towards achieving the Paris Agreement.

These include:

• Triple renewable energy capacity and double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvement by 2030
• Transition from fossil fuels to energy systems
• Reduces non-CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions.
• Stop and reverse deforestation and forest degradation

However, progress on most of these goals remains inadequate.

The second GST – which starts next month on UN climate conference COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye – can take advantage of this by reaffirming priority mitigation action areas, extending already measurable targets to 2035 and 2040, and making existing action areas more concrete through clearer and, where possible, measurable targets.

The report sets benchmarks that must be achieved to be consistent with the lowest exceedance scenario.

For example, expanding the transition goal from fossil fuels requires reducing the share of coal, oil and gas in total energy supply by at least 55, 15 and five percent respectively by 2035.compared to 2025 figures.

Reductions of at least 75, 30 and 35 percent will be required by 2040.