Nigeria’s economic growth will increase to 4.43% in the second quarter of 2026

Nigeria’s economy recorded stronger growth in the second quarter of 2026, expanding by 4.43 percent in real terms as agriculture, services and the non-oil economy recorded improved performance, according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

This growth rate is higher than the 4.23 percent recorded in the same period in 2025 and also shows an increase compared to the 3.89 percent expansion recorded in the first quarter of 2026.

The figures are contained in the National Bureau of Statistics’ Nigerian Gross Domestic Product Report for the second quarter of 2026, based on GDP estimates calculated at constant 2019 prices.

“Gross Domestic Product grew by 4.43 percent (year on year) in real terms in the second quarter of 2026, higher than the 4.23 percent recorded in the second quarter of 2025,” the bureau said.

Based on current base prices, aggregate GDP rose to N119.29tn during the quarter, compared with N100.73tn recorded in the same period in 2025, reflecting nominal growth of 18.43 per cent.

The overall improvement in performance was largely supported by stronger growth in agriculture and services, although the industrial sector recorded a slower pace of expansion compared to the previous year.

Agriculture increased by 4.39 percent in real terms, a significant increase from the 2.82 percent recorded in the second quarter of 2025. The services sector also strengthened, growing by 4.60 percent compared to 3.94 percent in the same period the previous year.

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However, the industry grew by 3.96 percent, much slower than the 7.46 percent expansion recorded in the second quarter of 2025.

Services maintained its position as Nigeria’s largest economic sector, contributing 56.62 percent of real GDP, slightly higher than its contribution of 56.53 percent in the previous year.

Agriculture contributed 26.15 percent to real GDP, slightly below the 26.17 percent recorded in the same quarter of 2025, but much higher than the 23.16 percent contribution recorded in the first quarter of 2026.

Food crop production remained the main force driving agricultural output during the period.

The oil sector also recorded increased growth compared to the previous quarter, increasing by 7.31 percent year-on-year. Although this figure is below the growth of 20.46 percent recorded in the second quarter of 2025, it represents a sharp increase compared to the growth of 2.57 percent recorded in the first quarter of 2026.

Average crude oil production rose to 1.72 million barrels per day, compared with 1.68 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2025 and 1.55 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026.

This sector’s contribution to real GDP increased to 4.16 percent, from 4.05 percent in the same quarter the previous year and 3.92 percent in the first quarter of 2026.

The non-oil economy continues to dominate national output, growing by 4.31 percent this quarter, compared to 3.64 percent in the second quarter of 2025 and 3.94 percent in the previous quarter.

The NBS identified several sectors as key drivers of non-oil growth, including “Agriculture (crop production); Information and Communications (Telecommunications); Real Estate; Trade; Finance & Insurance (Financial Institutions); Manufacturing (Cement); and Construction.”

Despite the strong expansion, the non-oil sector’s contribution to real GDP fell slightly to 95.84 percent from 95.95 percent recorded in the previous year.

The Information and Communication sector was one of the sectors with the strongest performance, growing by 9.62 percent and increasing its contribution to real GDP to 11.74 percent, compared to 11.18 percent in the second quarter of 2025.

Manufacturing increased by 3.24 percent, although its contribution to real GDP decreased slightly to 7.72 percent from 7.81 percent in the previous year.

Construction also recorded strong growth of 6.75 percent and contributed 3.68 percent to the economy.

Trade, one of Nigeria’s largest sectors with a contribution of 17.93 percent to real GDP, grew by 2.40 percent, better than the 1.29 percent expansion recorded in the same period in 2025.

Other sectors that contributed to this positive performance included mining and quarrying which grew by 6.37 percent, as well as the water supply, sewerage and waste management sectors which increased by 11.24 percent.

Accommodation and food services grew by 6.96 percent, while transportation and warehousing increased by 5.70 percent.

Arts, entertainment and recreation emerged as one of the fastest growing sectors, recording real growth of 11.93 percent. Finance and insurance also showed strong performance, increasing by 9.29 percent, while real estate grew by 3.76 percent.

Administrative and support services recorded growth of 3.27 percent, while public administration increased by 1.94 percent. Education grew by 2.76 percent, with human health and social services recording growth of 2.64 percent.

However, the report shows that not all sectors are participating in the economic expansion.

Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supplies contracted by 10.63 percent, marking a major reversal from the 11.47 percent growth recorded in the same quarter of 2025 and making this sector one of the biggest drags on the economy.

Other services also recorded a contraction of 0.70 percent, although this decline was an improvement compared to the contraction that occurred in the same quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.

The latest GDP figures show that the Nigerian economy maintained an upward growth trajectory in the second quarter, driven primarily by agriculture, telecommunications, finance, construction and other non-oil activities, although weakness in electricity supply and slower industrial growth continued to pose challenges to broader economic expansion.