The shocking far-right wave in Germany shakes the political foundations of Europe

An alternative to Germany’s (AfD) landslide victory in Saxony-Anhalt could be the prelude to far-right forces ruling alone across Europe. The German “grand coalition” model and the centrist alliance on which EU politics is based are starting to crack.

The radical right’s alternative to Germany’s landslide victory in elections in the Saxony-Anhalt region could represent the first real crack in the power structure that has held European politics together since the Second World War.

The AfD won a resounding victory in the eastern German region on Sunday, taking 43.8 percent of the vote. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which leads the governing coalition in Berlin, slumped to 17.2 percent, while its junior coalition partner, the Social Democrats (SPD), managed just 9.3 percent.

For the first time since the Nazi era, a German region could be led by a far-right force, as local leader Ulrich Siegmund could become president if the far-left BSW party decides to support him or abstain in elections.

As well as dealing a further blow to an already deeply unpopular government in Berlin, the results have sparked mixed reactions across Europe, with far-right forces keen to profit as key EU states go to the polls next year.

“This result is not an exception, it is a signal for the rest of Germany and for Europe,” René Aust, head of the AfD delegation to the European Parliament, told Euronews.

“We are on track to become the country’s main governing party and I am convinced that at the next European elections we will return to the European Parliament with more than double our current strength,” Aust said.

*European repercussions*

“The region Saxony-Anhalt is a small part of Germany. 1 region in 16,” said Andreas Schwab (Germany/EPP), downplaying the impact of the vote. “THE [AfD] The party has no real power in Berlin, where the grand coalition has a clear majority.”

For Schwab, the impact of the vote in Brussels will likely be limited to strengthening the EU’s simplification agenda, cutting red tape, including for farmers, and pushing for a more nationally oriented EU budget.

Svenja Hahn (Germany/Renew) echoed this view. “We can only maintain a Democratic majority in 2029 if we can finally achieve economic growth and prosperity and free people and businesses from the regulatory burden,” he said.

However, the result is set to raise alarm bells across Europe, not only because of its impact on German domestic politics, but because the tradition of the German grand coalition provided a basis for the political consensus at the heart of European integration for much of the post-war period.

The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) have been the focus of Brussels politics since the creation of the European Parliament, sometimes with the support of the centrist Renew Europe group.

But the rise of extremist parties and the steady erosion of the political center are now calling this approach – born in Germany, exported to Brussels – into question. Last month, Europe Elects predicted that the three centrist forces would, for the first time, fail to gain an absolute majority if European Parliament elections were held today.

“It is no longer about who can talk to whom and how different factions of democratic society can unite. It is about how to increase their common share, not by stealing each other’s electorate, but by convincing those who are disappointed in all of us democrats,” MEP Sergey Lagodinsky (Germany/Greens-EFA) told Euronews.

The far right in power

The AfD’s growing electoral gains across Europe have raised the prospect that far-right parties could enter government outright. In Saxony-Anhalt the AfD failed to reach the majority needed to govern alone, but could achieve it in coalition with the BSW.

The extent to which traditional parties allow for power sharing depends on the national context and the willingness of traditional forces to ally with the far right.

In Italy, for example, Giorgia Meloni has steered her coalition government towards the center, making her European party, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), increasingly mainstream. As a result, it now faces competition from a new far-right force led by Roberto Vannacci (Italy/ESN), a former army general turned MEP.

In Spain, the center-right Popular Party has teamed up with the far-right Vox party to govern several regions, including Andalusia and Castilla y León, a model that some would like to see exported to Brussels.

“In each country, it really depends on how radical the far right is and how much there can be some kind of collaboration. But, in general, the collaboration with the far right has not been good for us. We have remained weak,” MEP Hildegard Bentele (Germany/EPP) told Euronews.

Within the European Parliament, the EPP group led by the Bavarian Manfred Weber has maintained a flexible approach throughout the legislature in forming variable majorities, sometimes seeking the support of far-right parties on specific issues.

While Weber’s strategy has strengthened the EPP’s negotiating power and drawn the ire of other centrist forces, the move from a case-by-case alignment to a more structural alliance would entail a fundamental reformulation of power-sharing at the EU level.

Until now, Weber has always ruled out structured cooperation with far-right forces, while some EPP parties have often called for it.

*Elections are approaching*

In 2027, voters in France, Italy, Poland, Spain, Estonia, Greece, Finland, Malta and Slovenia will all go to the polls in high-stakes national elections. In France, in particular, far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen is expected to win against any other candidate in the runoff.

These next elections will reshape the European political landscape in view of the next European elections in 2029 which, if current trends hold, could be the first not to hand over the governing majority to traditional parties.

“The elections in Saxony-Anhalt. It is a very strong alarm signal, but we have three years before the elections, so we have a lot of time to become stronger again. The alarm signal has gone out. We have to work on our strength,” Bentele said.

Bentele drew two main lessons from the results: the need to mobilize people who had not voted in the last elections, the main driver of the AfD’s surge, and the need to choose the most suitable candidates.

Meanwhile, Aust noted that only voters over 70 prevented the AfD from gaining an absolute majority at the regional level, which he sees as strong evidence that the future belongs to patriotic forces and that the CDU will soon become “yesterday’s party,” as was the case with the Christian Democrats in Italy.

For Lagodinsky, the challenge ahead is none other than restoring the faith of disillusioned voters in liberal democracy. “If we don’t commit to this, our democracy is doomed,” he concluded.