Total energy production increased by 6.55% in the fourth quarter of 2025 – NERC

Total power generation on the national grid increased by 6.55% to 9,831.58 GWh compared to 9,227.57 GWh in the previous quarter, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) said.

According to its Q4 2025 report, the regulatory body attributed this positive trajectory to robust energy consumption and a substantial increase in energy offtakes by grid-connected primary distribution networks.

Analysts say the report is an indication that the federal government’s fiscal policies and ongoing structural revisions have produced substantial economic gains, strengthening macroeconomic performance across critical infrastructure sectors. This macroeconomic momentum is transmitting to Nigeria’s electricity supply sector (NESI), where increased economic activity has triggered a marked expansion in power generation and offtake across the country.

Despite federal economic gains and increased energy production, the downstream sector remains plagued by severe inefficiencies. While the 28 grid-connected power plants increased hourly production to an average of 4,452.71 MWh/h, electricity distribution companies (DisCos) suffered significant financial losses.

The NERC report revealed that of the total energy offtake recorded by DisCos during the quarter under review worth ₦969.19 billion, only ₦795.06 billion was successfully billed to end consumers.

“At the aggregate level, DisCos cumulatively recorded billing losses of ₦174.12 billion in 2025/Q4,” NERC said in its official release, highlighting a decline in billing efficiency of 82.03%.

The situation worsened at the collection stage, where DisCos recovered only ₦630.93 billion out of the ₦795.06 billion billed to consumers, bringing the overall collection efficiency to 79.36%. Consecutively, the aggregate weighted average technical, commercial and collection (ATC&C) losses increased to 34.90%. This underperformance represents a staggering 14.36 percentage point deviation from the 20.54% target set by the Multi-Year Tariff Order (MYTO), translating into a cumulative revenue loss of ₦139.193 billion. NERC noted that with the exception of Eko DisCo, all distribution operators failed to achieve their technical targets, with Kaduna DisCo emerging as the worst performer.

The regulator’s report also highlighted an increase in technical vulnerabilities within the country’s transmission network. In the quarter under review, the national network often operated outside the standard boundaries. The lower daily average frequency dropped to 49.38 Hz while the upper limit reached 50.65 Hz, violating the normal operating thresholds of 49.75 Hz to 50.25 Hz. Likewise, system voltages fluctuated outside the mandatory parameters of the Grid Code, oscillating between a minimum of 297.96 kV and a maximum of 347.03 kV.

These profound operational shortcomings have weakened internal market liquidity and financial settlement rates. Out of a cumulative upstream market bill of ₦471.66 billion issued to DisCos for generation and transmission services, operators collectively remitted ₦437.27 billion, leaving an outstanding balance of ₦34.39 billion.

“This translates to a remittance performance of 92.71% in 2025/Q4 compared to 95.21% recorded in 2025/Q3,” the report adds.
However, on a positive note, the federal government’s push to curb arbitrary estimated billing practices has seen considerable success.
DisCos successfully installed a total of 323,864 meters in the fourth quarter of 2025, a sharp increase of 33.91% compared to the previous quarter. The majority of these installations were driven by the Meter Asset Provider (MAP) framework, pushing the country’s total metered customer base to 6,966,584, representing a national metering rate of 57.27% out of over 12 million active registered users.

Meanwhile, the expansion has been overshadowed by a dismal safety record. The Commission reported 46 electrical accidents during the period, resulting in 17 serious injuries and 26 deaths.

NERC confirmed that it has launched full-scale investigations into the incidents, reiterating its commitment to enforce stricter health and safety standards across all industry participants to protect Nigerian lives.