When the Nigerian network struggled, Lagos turned to generators at high economic costs

A new report by the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) has revealed a serious paradox in the Nigerian power landscape: Electricity outside the network and the resulting itself in the state of Lagos now exceeds the output of all networks connected to the network.

This revelation revealed the increased energy crisis in the most dense countries in Africa and questioned the effectiveness of the electrification plan that had been lasted for a long time.

According to the African State Infrastructure Report in 2025, which was issued on Monday, Lagos itself produced more than 19 Gigawatts of off-Grid-up-to-complete electricity-folded output of the average national network from 4 to 5 gigawatts. These numbers reflect a shift in a quiet but sweeping energy supply, mostly driven by needs, not strategy.

“In Nigeria, an unreliable public supply has encouraged millions of households and companies to rely on gasoline and diesel generators,” the report said. “The prisoner generation is very broad among industrial and commercial users.”

For the average Lagos population, this fact is not surprising. Whether it’s a family that relies on a noisy generator to give fans to fans on the hot night or small business that burns diesel to remain operational, the burden of self-sufficiency has long fallen on people. But the scale, as revealed by AFC, is very surprising.

Throughout Nigeria, this trend echoed in large and small business cities, unable to depend on national networks, and increasingly invest in gas or special diesel plants. In Lagos, this installation is no longer an exception but the rules. More and more industrial areas and commercial centers are fully operational on the strength produced by themselves, not only reflecting the failure of the centralized system but also the resilience of residents and companies that are determined to keep the lights on.

The report warned, however, that this shift was a “market signal,” not a sign of progress. “Going off-Grid is not always a low-cost solution,” he noted. “This is often the last choice.”

A 2019 study by the Energy for Growth Hub quoted by the report found that the power produced itself costs almost double the electricity in Nigeria and up to four times more in Ethiopia. These high costs erode industry competitiveness and worsen economic punishment from lack of investment in national infrastructure.

The implication stretches outside Nigeria. The AFC report describes a terrible picture of the continent: unless an urgent intervention is carried out, the number of Africans without electricity access can remain stagnant at the current level until 2030

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But the report doubted the feasibility of the target, referring to slowing growth in the generation of utility scale and great dependence on the solution little by little.

Between 2013 and 2023, African power plants grew less than 2%per year, lagging behind population growth (2.42%) and economic growth (3%). Conversely, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions reported the growth of generations 3.8% and 4.5%. In 2024 alone, Africa added that only 6.5GW of the power scale of the utility, far behind 18GW India and the United States ’48 .6GW.

South Africa, the second largest economy in Africa, experienced its own off-group boom. After the policy reform 2022 removed the barriers to licenses, the power plant embedded in the country jumped. At the end of 2023, the capacity had jumped from only 23 Megawatts in 2019 to 4.5GW, with more than 1GW of the sun added in 2024 only.

But even this advantage is uneven and often not reported. The AFC report criticizes the global focus on solar roofs and renewable energy outside the network, noting that the thermal generation, especially in the industry, remains not badly traced despite the greater significance. Captive thermal plants, as used by cement factory or mining operations, can produce between 20MW and 200MW per site.

In the heart of this report is a clear warning: the current African track refers to “low energy balance,” a scenario where electric access statistics increase on paper, but the volume and reliability of supply remain too weak to support real economic growth.

“This is not just stagnation. This is a decrease in energy consumption that is meaningful,” AFC warned.

Although blessed with great potential that has not been utilized – Africa has the largest hydropower resources that have not been developed in the world, abundant geothermal reserves, and some of the highest levels of solar irradiation globally – These assets remain stranded due to poor infrastructure and lack of investment.