2027 Survey: Obi is stuck in ADC, “can’t return” to LP,…

As activities in the main first stanza of the 2027 general election move towards their crescendo, time appears to be running out for presidential candidate and 2023 Labor Party (LP) candidate, Peter Gregory Obi. The former governor of Anambra State (2006-2014) reiterated that he “only” aims for the presidency of Nigeria.

In this regard, the voting public expects him to demonstrate his capabilities and reclaim the primaries of the crisis-ridden African Democratic Congress (ADC), or curtail his ambition to mate with whoever emerges as Northern Nigeria’s flag bearer on the party platform.

In addition to the Electoral Act 2026 (as amended) which prohibits an aspirant from “belonging” to or straddling two or more political parties – or from switching to a “post” after losing the primaries in the original party for the same position – the LP’s procedures, as per the law, close the “back door” on Obi’s return to the party he walked away from amid an internal schism.

Section 77 of the Electoral Act, 2026 provides as follows: “(1) A political party registered under this Act shall be a body corporate with perpetual succession and a common seal and may sue and be sued in the name of its corporation. (2) A party shall maintain a digital register of its members containing name, sex, date of birth, address, State, local government, constituency, electoral unit, national identification number and photograph in both hard copy and digital copy.

“(3) Upon registration, a member shall be issued a membership card. (4) Each political party shall make this register available to the Commission at least 21 days before the date set for the party’s primaries, conferences or conventions. (5) Only members whose names appear in the register shall have the right to vote and be voted for in party primaries, congresses and conventions.

“(6) A political party shall not use any other register for party primaries, conferences and conventions other than the register submitted to the Commission. (7) A party which fails to submit its register of members within the prescribed period shall be ineligible to present a candidate for such elections.”

Will Section 77 of the Electoral Act 2026 trap Obi, or any other aspirant seeking to switch camps after losing the primaries of another political party? Columnist Enyinnaya Appolos thinks so! He explains how in an article in TheEagleOnline on March 8, 2026, titled “2027: How Section 77 Could Frustrate Hopefuls as Post-Primary Defection Window Closes.”

Appolos points out that the real change in the 2026 amendment is not in section 60 (electronic transmission of results), but in section 77, and that “very soon, politicians with ambitions for 2027 will realize this,” stressing that “the section requires every registered political party to maintain both physical and digital records of its members.”

“Essentially, the section requires political parties to maintain a complete digital register of their members and to submit such register to INEC no later than 21 days before the holding of primaries, conventions or conventions,” it says.

“Once all political parties have submitted their membership registers to INEC 21 days before the primaries, the membership composition of each party is fixed for that election cycle. And the case is closed. Anyone who is not already listed in a party’s digital register cannot suddenly emerge as an eligible member to contest that party’s primaries.

“Since it is legally impossible to belong to two political parties at the same time, this provision could significantly cure, and potentially end, the ticket-buying culture of political disengagement. Once a candidate loses his or her party’s nomination, his or her aspiration for that election cycle effectively ends until the next election. That is the implication,” he adds.

Furthermore, performing a “fact check” on claims that the Electoral Act 2026 prohibits politicians from withdrawing after party primaries, Destiny Young, editor/chief content strategist at AkwaIbomTimes, notes that, “In fact, the law does not outright ban defection after primaries, but it makes it much less useful for anyone trying to emerge as a viable candidate in another party after losing in the first round.”

“What the law clearly achieves is this: It forces aspirants to make their policy choices sooner. It reduces the space for emergency defections after primaries. It narrows party processes. It gives greater weight to compliance with deadlines and official documents. For politicians who once relied on late moves between parties to stay in the race, the Electoral Act 2026 has made this strategy much harder to sustain,” Young said.

Former Finance Minister, Nenadi Usman, following the decision of the Court of Appeal in Abuja on 20 April 2026 – which agreed with the rulings of the Supreme Court on 4 April 2025 and the Federal High Court in Abuja on 21 January 2026, declaring her a duly recognized leader of the LP – spoke about the possibility of Obi returning to the party.

In an interview on Arise Television’s ‘Prime Time’ on April 22, 2026, Ms Usman, noted that given the provisions of the Electoral Act 2026 and LP procedures, it would be too late for Obi to get the party ticket through the ‘backdoor’.

“Well, actually it will be too late for you to come back because, if you look at the (2026 election) law now, at some point, we will close the register. And once we close the register 21 days before the primaries, (and) send the electronic register to INEC (Independent National Electoral Commission), you cannot come from behind the door (what Obi did in 2022) for us to register you and for you to contest.”

Obi did a “Ben Johnson” (100m) in June 2022 when he realized he could not compete with Atiku for the PDP ticket and, in Obi’s words, “joined” and not “defected” with the LP, which kindly gave him its ticket to contest the February 25, 2023 presidential poll.

In a stunning result, Obi not only secured a third position behind Atiku – whom he had paired as a vice presidential candidate in the 2019 poll – but also defeated then APC candidate, now President of Nigeria, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in his residential stronghold of Lagos State by 582,454 votes (45.81%) to 572,606 votes (45.04%) – a comfortable margin by 9,848 votes.

Buoyed by that “historic outing,” Obi is targeting the presidency again in 2027, dismissing rumors that he aspires to be Atiku’s running mate, as in 2019, so he presumably wants the ADC ticket zoned in southern Nigeria, where he likes to defeat other regional aspirants in primaries.

Obi and his handlers appear to have devised a means to beat Atiku at his own game by pairing him with former Kano governor and 2023 New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) candidate, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, to fight for the ADC ticket.

Obi supporters in the “Obidient Movement” and Kwankwaso followers in the “Kwankwasiyya Movement” on Monday, April 20, 2026, in Abuja, formed the “Obi-Kwankwaso (OK) Movement”, claiming to have established structures and appointed state and zonal coordinators in the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, to spearhead its mobilization, PUNCH reported on April 20, 2026.

In a statement, the movement’s national publicity secretary, Justin Ijeh, said the initiative, “a coalition of political forces” including the Obidient Movement, Kwankwasiyya, NNPP and ADC, “is more than a political milestone; it is the birth of a nationally coordinated engine for systemic reform and national rebirth.”

“Nigeria stands at a crucial crossroads. Today, as our people bear the brunt of unprecedented economic hardship, rising costs of living and the lingering shadow of insecurity, the Obi-Kwankwaso (OK) Movement formally announces the inauguration of its national and state structures,” Ijeh said.

The national coordinator of the Obidient movement, Dr Yunusa Tanko, confirmed that the OK movement was working in line with the Obi support structures towards a joint ADC presidential ticket, saying: “Ijeh and others are some of our people. There is no division. Both the OK movement and the Village Boys movement are working for the same purpose.”

Will the OK movement fulfill Obi’s bid to become Nigeria’s president by “wresting” the ticket of the self-styled “main opposition” ADC from the clutches of Atiku and taking on President Tinubu and his ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) at the January 16, 2027 poll that an ADC leader and former presidential aspirant, Chief Dele Momodu, has described as “a war” for which he is stirring debate among young people to face it as such?

Obi is a herculean task, as there is no room for error or maneuvering, or for a possible return to the Labor Party for its ticket. However, if his 2023 exit is any indication, coupled with the synergy of the Obidient and Kwankwasiyya movements behind his ambition, the 2027 candidacy could yield a more promising placement in the presidential docket. Good luck to him, starting with the ADC primaries in May 2026!

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