OPINION: Avoiding deaths in the 2027 election

The inevitable demise is imminent in 2027. Those who understand the mythology, history and electoral patterns in Nigeria, know that the 2027 elections will be a harbinger of death, fueled by electoral violence. It would take a miracle to escape what was about to happen. People will die. Nigeria will perish. Hospitals will be overwhelmed. Nigerians must therefore prepare for the impending disaster, as its intensity and scale will make this year a regrettable year of carnage. All six geo-political regions of the country will be affected.

This event will further worsen the country’s global perception, and worsen the country’s negative profile as the 5th most violent country in the world, and 4th in the 2026 Global Terrorism Index, as well as the 6th deadliest and 7th most dangerous country for civilians in the world. In addition, elections will threaten democratic norms, political stability, and erode trust in public institutions due to brazen manipulation of the election process.

The impending disaster will be largely fueled by electoral insecurity resulting from the desperation of political parties to outwit each other, particularly the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main opposition parties, including the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC). While the APC will make every effort to retain the incumbent government of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for a second term, the ADC and NDC will mobilize all the resources they have to overthrow and replace the current APC government, thereby causing a public uproar.

Although other political parties will also show strength and defeat him, this election will be fiercely contested by the APC, NDC and ADC. The stakes are high, and driven by senseless greed and a lust for power to control political authority and economic resources, even if those resources are poorly utilized, and often, thoughtlessly used to protect pride, fund vanity, and maintain empire, rather than wisely applied to improve the living conditions of citizens.

Political parties will most likely deploy political thugs disguised as party officials into the field to strengthen their internal strategic plans to achieve programmed goals. With their planned political behavior and indifference, political parties will unknowingly reduce the value of human life during elections. This is a picture of what this country will experience in next year’s elections.

Before you ask me for proof, look at and verify the antecedents of political parties and how their leaders inflame the political atmosphere to incite violence and fraud in their speech and body language, influenced by the irrational desire to achieve electoral victory at all costs. With the exception of former President Goodluck Jonathan, all presidential candidates from 1999 to date are guilty of inflaming the government through their tendencies and declarations.

For example, before the Presidential elections in April 2007, then President Olusegun Obasanjo had alluded that the elections would be “a matter of life or death”. Although the statement was simple, it encouraged supporters of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to work harder to achieve victory at any cost without thinking about the possible consequences. Obviously, this resulted in violence and loss of life across the country.

Additionally, in the 2011 elections when former and late President Muhammadu Buhari, the then Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) candidate lost to Goodluck Jonathan, his post-election stance and remarks, undeniably, provoked and encouraged election violence in some parts of the country, especially in the north-western region.

According to Human Rights Watch, more than 800 people were killed, and more than 65,000 people were displaced in the 2011 elections following widespread protests and unrest by Buhari supporters in northern states. Killings exacerbated by sectarian coloring occurred in Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Niger, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara.

Showing no empathy for the high number of Nigerians killed, including innocent members of the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC), Buhari further threatened that if the next elections scheduled for 2015 were rigged like the 2011 elections, “dogs and baboons will have blood on their hands”, implying that violence and deaths were inevitable in the 2015 elections.

Clearly, Buhari’s comments are an indication of political desperation, intent on using threats of force and violence to influence the outcome of political contests, as opposed to rendering an impartial decision to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Luckily for Nigeria, former President Jonathan conceded defeat, so Buhari’s threat did not come true in 2015. Jonathan’s actions not only eased tensions, but also prevented widespread killings and bloodshed that would have accompanied the announcement of results in his favor, particularly in the north of the country. Jonathan’s position is clearly defined by his philosophy that his ambitions and anyone’s ambitions, are not worth the blood of any Nigerian, which he held as his belief throughout the 2015 general election period, and prefers credible and peaceful elections.

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Apart from that, the current President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, is also not immune from utterances that encourage violence. Addressing his party members in London in 2023, Tinubu said political power is not granted a la carte, but must be secured through intense efforts by “fighting for it, taking it, seizing it and running with it”. Whatever the meaning, this statement is not only unhelpful, but also encourages fraud and violence, and opens new vistas of political hopelessness and a new redefinition of the premises of an unhealthy political process.

There are parallels between Tinubu’s statements and the incident that occurred at a polling station in Lagos’ Lekki Axis in the 2023 elections. After queuing for hours in the sun to vote, just as the ballot papers were about to be counted at the end of voting, several tugboats appeared out of nowhere, frightened the voters, confiscated the ballot boxes and left them, presumably, to print new ballot papers. Of course, there is a correlation between their actions and the political philosophy of “fight for it, take it, take it and run with it”.

In the same vein, Secretary of the Board of Trustees of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP), Alhaji Buba Galadima, recently advised Nigerians to defend their votes in the upcoming 2027 elections with “bottles and jerry cans of kerosene”. This clearly refers to violence and calls for anarchy. This is indeed a start, because a worse scenario characterized by unhealthy electoral struggles will occur in the 2027 elections where the value of human life will be degraded.

The culture of murder in every election environment in Nigeria has become legendary. Among all countries in Africa, and indeed across the world where elections are held, Nigeria is notorious for its electoral manipulation and violence, thereby attracting undue global attention. As the election nears, skepticism, uncertainty, fear and worry permeate the atmosphere due to the expected violence.

Although it is the government’s responsibility to protect and ensure the safety of lives during elections, the guarantees given by governments in the past to protect the lives of citizens do not translate into safety. When some successes are discounted, you find that security agencies have proven incapable of dealing with high levels of violence such as those that occurred in the 2011 elections where more than 800 people lost their lives.

Since the past, politicians have cared little about death and can sacrifice the blood of innocent Nigerians for the sake of electoral victory. Their interests and activities are driven more by the value of votes, as seen in the post-election litigation process where they seek legal redress for electoral malpractice rather than justice for those who died.

Unfortunately, this impending death toll will be far less than any political-related killings that have previously occurred in the country, necessitating the need to prioritize personal safety. It is critical to identify and avoid election black spots that are notorious for violence.

Political thugs tend to instigate violence by creating an atmosphere of fear and intimidation at polling stations with the aim of manipulating elections.

The public is therefore advised to design a safety net that will protect and ensure personal safety in the event of a real threat to life, even if that means avoiding the polling station. Remember that Nigerians who died in previous elections have been forgotten, and the country is moving on without them. Therefore, it is important for citizens to protect themselves so as not to be among the dead in the disaster that will occur in 2027.

By: Mike Owhoko