When the war spread, the global food system collapsed

Carl Skau, acting head of the World Food Program, met the family during a visit to Somalia last week. Speak at the UN Security Council In a debate on conflict and famine on Tuesday, he described their plight as one example of a wider phenomenon occurring in war zones: The “vicious conflict-famine cycle,” in which war produces famine and starvation, in turn, creates the conditions for further violence.

In Somalia, farmers are being driven from their land. In Sudan, markets have been attacked by drones and missiles. In Haiti, gang violence has isolated entire communities. From Gaza to Mali and Myanmar, humanitarian workers are prohibited from reaching people in need.

Taken together, these crises demonstrate a dangerous evolution in the relationship between war and famine. Food systems themselves – farms, ports, markets, storage facilities and shipping lanes – are increasingly caught up in conflicts whose economic impacts extend far beyond the battlefield.

“Critical food systems – and the lives and livelihoods they support – are under attack,” the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said the Council at the opening of the debate.

At least 266 million people faced acute food insecurity last yearGuterres said, as the world recorded the highest number of armed conflicts since World War II. For the first time this century, famine occurred simultaneously in two places, Sudan and Gaza. Conflict and violence are now the main causes of hunger in 12 of the 13 famine hotspots considered to be of greatest concern by the UN.

A battlefield that stretches across the ocean

But hunger conditions are changing. A missile attack on a port or an attack on a cargo ship could raise food prices thousands of miles away.

The Black Sea is one example. Russia and Ukraine are major grain exporters, and the escalation of attacks has disrupted a vital route of global food trade. Grain shipments via the Bosphorus fell by 40 percent compared to the previous year, according to WFP.

At the same time, attacks on commercial ships have disrupted trade through the Red Sea. The Strait of Hormuz, which holds about a fifth of global oil supplies and a third of fertilizer trade, has been hit by restrictions and closures that have pushed commodity prices higher.

Skau describes the convergence as a crisis of three maritime bottlenecks: the Black Sea, the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. The disruptions there occur through interconnected energy, fertilizer and food markets, turning remote wars into greater losses for countries that rely heavily on imports.

For rich countries, this may mean higher prices. For countries already in crisis, this could mean less food.

In Sudan, Skau said, the cost of basic food has increased by almost 40 percent since February. Higher fuel prices are impacting irrigation, transport and milling, while disruptions to fertilizer exports are threatening growing seasons in Africa and Asia – meaning that the full impact of the current conflict may not be visible until future harvests.

When famine triggers another war

Conflict destroys farms, markets, and supply lines, driving people to flee their homes. But famine can also make displaced and impoverished communities more vulnerable to recruitment by armed groups and criminal networks.

Somalia paints a particularly bleak picture. Skau said six million people – about a third of the population – face acute hunger or worse, while nearly two million children suffer from acute or severe malnutrition. But the WFP helps around 600,000 people, about one in 10 people facing acute hunger.

Last week, fighting in Baidoa prevented the agency from providing nutritional assistance to around 5,000 children. And when families can no longer afford to put food on the table, Skau warned, desperation can create opportunities for armed groups and criminal networks to recruit vulnerable young people.

This is a cycle that was officially recognized by the Security Council in 2018, when it unanimously adopted Resolution 2417 on conflict and famine. Eight years later, Guterres said, “the vicious cycle continues.”

This warning came before the famine

Failure is not primarily a diagnosis. The international community has developed systems to detect hunger and predict starvation. The problem is what happens after the warning.

A famine in Somalia in 2010-2012 killed nearly 260,000 people, about half of them children, Skau said. The crises that followed, in 2017 and 2022, did not reach the same catastrophic scale because aid was increased before the famine occurred. Sudan, he says, provides the opposite lesson. The warning signs were visible, but the international community failed to act decisively.

Mr Guterres urge The council aims to protect agricultural land, water systems, markets, storage facilities, ports and supply routes, and most importantly to respond before famine goes beyond formal limits and becomes a disaster.

“We cannot wait for famine or disaster conditions to be officially confirmed,” said the UN Secretary General. “I call on this Council to act when the warning lights come on.”

The warning comes as machines designed to stave off starvation are shrinking. Humanitarian agencies face more wars, more refugees and more disrupted trade routes with fewer resources. In Somalia, Skau said, the WFP has only reached a fraction of what it can.

The result is a disturbing reversal. The world is getting better at predicting where people will go hungry, even as it is becoming less able – or less willing – to prevent that from happening.