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The study draws on the views of 1,300 people from governments, international organizations, civil society, the private sector and academia, spread across every region of the world.
They rated 28 political, economic, environmental, social and technological threats based on how likely they are to occur, how damaging they are, and how prepared the world is to deal with them.
The drumbeat of war
Large-scale war rose 16 places compared to 2024 – the sharpest risk increase on the list. More than a third of those surveyed, or 36 percent, thought the impact could reach most of humanity within a year; 76 percent expect that to happen within seven years.
It is also a threat the world appears unprepared to face: large-scale war is the only risk that ranks in the top six of the four measures tracked in the survey – its importance, how imminent it is, how closely linked to other dangers, and how unprepared institutions are to respond to it.
Two years ago, environmental threats, misinformation and pandemics dominated the picture. Now geopolitical tensions, war and the weakening of the rule of law are at the center.
“These findings are truly sad. Political risks have taken center stage. The possibility of a large-scale war is seen as much more important and more immediate than two years ago,” Secretary General Antonio Guterres wrote in the report’s foreword. “At the same time, the institutions expected to respond are seen as lacking the ability to act.”
No area is immune
This shift is visible everywhere. Large-scale war and geopolitical tensions now rank as the 10th biggest threat in the seven regions surveyedand in the top five of six of them.
Two years ago, the same risk was in the top five in just one region.
Weapons of mass destruction also entered the top 10 in Central and South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania.
In East and Southeast Asia, concerns about this possibility are increasing the global financial crisis, the weakness of artificial intelligence, and the rising power of technology companies.
AI-related risks are also in the top 10 in Europe and North America.
In contrast, pandemics and biological threats are not in the top 10 in all countries – a reversal from two years ago, when pandemics and biological threats were still ranked among the most pressing risks in East and Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Interrelated threats
The report argues that no risk presents itself. Natural resource shortages, economic fragmentation, misinformation and weakening of multilateral institutions are increasing geopolitical tensions – which in turn makes large-scale war more likely.
Of the 705 linkages between risks identified by the survey, the link between geopolitical tensions and war was the strongest.
AI alarm bell
Artificial intelligence is of particular interest in this report. Concerns about AI, other leading technologies, and the concentration of power those technologies enable have risen sharply in two years – even as respondents said the multilateral system is the least prepared to handle technological threats.
Meanwhile, climate change has not gone away: Inaction in addressing this issue remained the single risk rated as most important overall, and this risk ranked high in every region, along with concerns about a lack of resources.
The report’s authors caution that other environmental risks not being on the list does not mean they are any less dangerous – they are just less visible. And visibility is important too: issues that get less attention often lose funding.
Cooperate
So, what can help? Respondents cited weak governance and coordination, lack of political consensus, and eroding trust and accountability as the biggest obstacles to managing risk – along with poor prioritization, resistance from society, politicians or business, and gaps in data.
Separately, 86 percent said funding for risk reduction alone was not enough, and the report cited natural disasters and the risk of the collapse of multilateral institutions as particularly underfunded.
There is no crystal ball
The UN was careful to frame this report as a reflection of perceptions rather than predictions. Respondents still see joint action between governments as by far the most effective means of prevention. No country, no company, no institution can face these risks alone.
“The Global Risk Report 2026 provides evidence that should inform our choices. We owe it to current and future generations to use this knowledge wisely, and act while cooperation can still lead to a safer course.
“The choice is ours,” said the Secretary General.
