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Fast facts
More than 347 million children in nearly 100 countries and territories are expected to experience unusually wet or dry conditions between October and December 2026 due to El Niño, increasing the risk of potentially devastating floods and extreme drought, according to a new report. UNICEF data.
Here are highlights of the risks children face:
- As extreme weather events become more widespread, young people may face increased risks of family separation, violence, exploitation and child marriage
- Colombia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and the Philippines are among those expected to experience drier conditions that will likely lead to drought and water scarcity, increasing displacement and exacerbating acute malnutrition.
- In Great Horn of AfricaWetter than normal conditions can trigger flash floods, spread waterborne diseases, and disrupt schools
- In countries affected by crises and conflicts such as Afghanistan and ChadEl Niño could pose a direct threat to survival, exacerbating hunger and malnutrition in already vulnerable children
- Every $1 invested in disaster risk reduction and prevention can save up to $15 in recovery costs, but currently less than one percent of humanitarian funds are used for anticipatory action.
The El Niño of 2026-2027 is expected to be one of the strongest El Niños ever recorded, threatening to exacerbate droughts, floods and other extreme weather in countries already grappling with food insecurity, displacement and economic stress.
Kids are on the front lines, again
El Niño can change rainfall patterns thousands of kilometers from the tropical Pacific, causing some regions to face drought and water shortages, while others face heavy rains, flooding and increased risk of disease.
More than 347 million children in nearly 100 countries and territories could be exposed to unusually dry or wet conditions between October and December due to El Niño, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) warned in a new report. analysis.
“For children, El Niño is more than just a weather pattern. It can mean increased displacement, malnutrition, water shortages and disease outbreaks,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell. “Children are also at risk of school closures, while families could experience greater financial hardship.”
Today, 1.1 billion children – nearly half of the world’s children – have been exposed to at least three interrelated climate-related hazards, such as drought, extreme heat or flooding.
In Papua New Guinea, the impact is already being felt
Some of these impacts are already visible in Papua New Guinea, a mountainous Pacific island nation where remote terrain and logistical challenges have complicated responses to previous droughts. El Niño conditions have occurred since mid-2026 and are expected to reach their peak in October to December.
In September, the Niño 3.4 index – a measure of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific used to track El Niño – surpassed the record of every previous El Niño event, including 1997 and 2015.
The government, which announced the event in June, has set up a special task force and approved a supplemental budget of $112 million.
However, the need is increasing.
About 1.2 million people experience it estimated requires immediate food assistance, given water shortages, crop losses, reduced food reserves, and higher prices have been reported. Schools are disrupted and concerns about health, nutrition and forest fires are increasing.
The greatest impact on agriculture and food security is expected to occur in November.
One ocean, completely different extremes
What dries out a region in one region can cause flooding in another region.
Across the Greater Horn of Africa, wetter than normal conditions could increase the risk of river flooding and flash flooding, increase the spread of waterborne diseases, and disrupt school activities.
In the wider region – including Yemen, Sudan and Afghanistan – children living amidst conflict and displacement face particularly acute risks as El Niño can amplify hunger, malnutrition and difficulties in accessing essential services.
The race to act early
For governments, weather forecasts provide something that disasters often don’t: time.
Asia and the Pacific are expected to be hit hardest by this exposure, with around 190 million children – more than half the global number of children identified by UNICEF – living in regions expected to experience unusually wet or dry conditions between October and December.
World Food Program (WFP) is urge countries in the region to strengthen social protection systems that can scale up when drought, floods or economic shocks threaten household food security.
“A flood, drought or sudden economic shock can wipe out a family’s progress in a matter of days,” said Samir Wanmali, WFP Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific. “A social protection system that is inclusive, nutrition-sensitive and ready to expand during a crisis can prevent temporary shocks from becoming lasting setbacks.”
Children sort through books and textbooks that were swept away by the devastating floods that recently hit the Nuwakot district in Nepal. (submit)
Lessons from the not so distant past
This urgency is sharpened by lessons from previous El Niño episodes.
In the analysis published in May, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) called the events that occurred in 2015-2016 a warning about how extreme climate impacts can affect the economy and society.
More than 70 percent of land in Southeast Asia experienced drought during that period, causing more than 200 million people to experience severe drought at its peak.
Current pressures include tightening government finances, rising debt and ongoing economic uncertainty and supply chain concerns, which have the potential to reduce the ability of governments and households to absorb other shocks.
A warmer world increases the risk
Meanwhile, climate change increases underlying risks. Higher temperatures accelerate the loss of moisture from soil and vegetation, potentially making drought worse when rainfall decreases.
For governments, this means preparing for extreme conditions in both directions – from insufficient rainfall, water shortages and crop losses to heavy rainfall, floods and landslides. The challenge is to turn predictions into decisions before crop failures, water supplies run low, or floods force families from their homes.
This will be the focus of regional El Niño exchange kicking off next week in Bangkok, bringing together governments, meteorologists, UN agencies and frontline practitioners to compare impacts and lessons learned from previous crises.
But for Papua New Guinea, this warning period is already starting to have an impact.
Water scarcity, crop damage and rising prices provide an early glimpse of El Niño’s extraordinary impact, far beyond warming Pacific waters.
