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Did President Trump just give the biggest indication that he is done with the war in Iran?
There was a lot of development overnight.
The caveat, up front, is that this president has changed his mind and has delivered very mixed messages in recent weeks. He also saw real benefit in saying one thing and doing the opposite. He was bluffing.
Even so, the language is more definite than before. It feels more than ever like a “way out” of “Iran outing” as he called it.
The latest Iran war: Trump considers ‘calming down’ Iran war
First, on the south lawn of the White House, he told us: “Oh, I think we’ve won. We’ve crippled their navy, their air force. We’ve crippled their anti-aircraft. We’ve crippled everything. We’re free to roam.”
He followed it up with: “We wanted a win… and that’s what we got.”
As usual, the messages conveyed were somewhat mixed. “Look,” he said: “… I don’t want to call a ceasefire. You know, you don’t call a ceasefire when you completely eliminate the other side.”
But an hour later, from the air, on Air Force One, he gave the clearest indication, via his Truth Social account, that he wanted to de-escalate the conflict.
Did he really think that he had achieved all of the war’s objectives, or was he now truly frightened by the global economic impact of the war?
List of achievements
On Truth Social he said: “We are close to achieving our goal as we consider stopping our major military efforts in the Middle East in light of the Iranian Terrorist Regime.”
Then he listed the accomplishments he saw:
(1) Completely denigrate Iran’s Missile Capabilities, Launchers and everything related to it.
(2) Destroying Iran’s Defense Industrial Base.
(3) Eliminate the Navy and Air Force, including Anti-Aircraft Weapons.
(4) Never allow Iran to approach its Nuclear Capabilities, and always be in a position where the US can react quickly and forcefully to such a situation, should it arise.
“(5) Protect, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern Allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and others.”
I’ll get to his allies in a moment, but think about the points above first.
The nuclear material is still in Iran
The first three points amount to the total annihilation of Iran’s military – this may be true considering how intense the American and Israeli bombardment has been over the past three weeks.
But the fourth point – “Iran is not even close to nuclear capability now”?
It’s almost certainly there many years ago, but remember, the nuclear material – almost the equivalent of a weapon – is still somewhere in Iran.
And, of course, for now at least the regime remains: more defiant, more suffering, and more intent on revenge.
The danger of retribution is great
The dangers of low-level, prolonged, dangerous and disruptive asymmetric retaliation are enormous. Iranian regime, as President Trump reminds us, is a global sponsor and exporter of terror. The sleep cells are very sophisticated. This is a major challenge for intelligence agencies.
Finally – the kicker in his statement.
“The Strait of Hormuz must be guarded and monitored, as necessary, by other countries that use it – not the United States! If asked, we will assist these countries in their Hormuz efforts, but that will not be necessary once the Iranian threat is eliminated.”
Simply put – he said: “Sorry guys – this is not America’s problem. We broke the global energy market. You have to fix it.”
He added that it would be easy to fix. By the way, no one else anywhere claims that.
So what’s next? Well, let’s see how the remaining parties in the Iranian government respond to these changes made by President Trump.
Remember, too, that this is a president who is constantly changing, altering, and contradicting his own statements.
To underscore the point, thousands more American troops have been sent to the region.
Don’t take anything for certain.
