KANO AT THE CROSSROADS: WHY THE STATE MUST CHOOSE PEACE OVER POLITICAL WAR*

*KANO AT THE CROSSROADS: WHY THE STATE MUST CHOOSE PEACE OVER POLITICAL WAR*

By Alh. Abdulbaki Ibrahim, public affairs analyst._The ancient city of Kano, the commercial and political heart of northern Nigeria, once again finds itself at a delicate crossroads.
Less than four years after a historic governorship contest that united and divided families, the state’s political map has changed beyond recognition.

In 2023, Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf won the governorship on the platform of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) with the full weight of the Kwankwasiyya movement led by Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.

Today, in 2026, the Governor is a member of the All Progressives Congress (APC), holder of Kano party card number 001, while his former politician
The Godfather, Senator Kwankwaso, has emerged as the Vice Presidential candidate of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), sponsoring comrade Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo as the NDC governorship candidate in Kano.

For some days, comrade Gwarzo’s name has been missing from the final list of candidates for the position of governor published by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

INEC, relying on the Supreme Court judgment of 24 September 2026 in INEC v Zenith Labor Party (SC/CV/495/2026), which reinstated sections 77(5)-(7) and 84(2) of the Electoral Act 2026, omitted candidates whose parties allegedly failed to submit a compliant membership register before the holding of the primaries.

This affected not only Kano NDC but also PDP candidates in Gombe and Ogun and many others in Bauchi.

The question many ask is: who has the upper hand?

*The current balance of power*

The truth must be told. To date, two forms of power exist in Kano.
The first is structural power. It is held by Governor Yusuf and the new APC coalition.
He controls the machinery of government, enjoys the support of 22 members of the State Assembly, nine members of the Kano House of Representatives and 44 local government chairmen who defected to him in January. The January 26 reconciliation, finally signed on October 8 between former National President Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and Senate Vice President Senator Barau Jibrin under the leadership of President Bola Tinubu, gave him federal cover and an automatic ticket.
In conventional politics, this is the advantage.

The second is emotional power and movement.
It is held by Senator Kwankwaso.
The red cap, the Kwankwasiyya ideology, the language of the talakawa, remain deeply rooted in the streets of Kano. Even after losing the seat of government, loyalty remains.
However, loyalty without a legally valid candidate on the ballot, as INEC’s omission has demonstrated, cannot win an election.

Therefore, APC has the upper hand in structure, while NDC/Kwankwasiyya maintains influence in sentiment.

If the legal hurdle facing Gwarzo is not resolved before the October 24 window stipulated by INEC under Section 32(2) of the Electoral Law, the framework will defeat sentiment.

But the most important question for Kano is not who will have the upper hand. The bigger question is: how can we prevent this contest from burning out Kano?

*How to contain it: my proposal based on three pillars…*

Having served this country for many years in various capacities, I have seen governments come and go, but Kano remains.
I am not a partisan of anything other than peace.
I therefore propose three pillars.

*First of all, debunk the personalities.*

The fight is no longer about ideology, but about personalities.
The governor himself warned against attacks on Kwankwaso, Ganduje and Barau, and Kwankwaso told BBC Hausa he was open to reconciliation, saying: “I still like him.”
We should keep it true to that word.

The social media armies of both sides must be called to order.
I propose a private *Majalisar Dattawa* – a council of 5-7 neutral elders and respected holders of traditional titles – to meet separately with both leaders and agree on the rules of engagement: no incitement, no destruction of legacies, no importation of criminals.

*Second: Return to legality, not emotion.*

The Supreme Court has spoken. Article 77 of the electoral law must be respected by all parties, not selectively.

The NDC must do what is necessary before October 24: submit its complaint with an affidavit and proof that Gwarzo and his deputy were on the register.

APC must also verify its registry.

We must support INEC to apply the law fairly. When the law takes center stage, rumors die.

*Third: refocus competition on governance.*

The people of Kano do not want insults, they want water, jobs, security and respect for their traditional institutions.

Let the government show its scorecard.

Let the opposition show its alternative project.

Let the debate be about the economy of Dawanau and Kwari markets, the education of our youth and security along our borders, not about who abused who on Facebook.

*Conclusion*
Kano has survived worse political storms. The Kwankwaso-Ganduje rivalry, the Abacha era, the inter-Emirate brawls – we survived because the elders spoke at the right time.

Whoever wins on February 6, 2027, will still need a united Kano to govern. If today we burn down the house because two brothers are fighting, tomorrow we will have nowhere to sleep.
First Kano, then politics.

Alh. Abdulbaki Ibrahim, a public affairs analyst with years of institutional experience, writes from Kano, Nigeria.