Tinubu’s greatest opponent is not Obi or Atiku… it is Tinubu, by Moses Braimah

“A government that spends more time explaining the opposition than explaining its results may already know where its real problem lies.”

Nigeria is a fascinating country.

Explain it to someone and watch them nod eagerly, only to confess moments later, “I still don’t get it.” If you claim to fully understand Nigeria, you are either a genius or no one has explained it correctly.

Take our policy.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu sits at Aso Rock with every lever of power firmly in hand: constitutional authority, the federal apparatus, a ruling party that controls the National Assembly, the loyalty of most governors, ministerial appointments, security agencies and the full weight of the incumbent. He has time, a lot, before 2027.

Yet somehow, Peter Obi still haunts the dreams of many in the corridors of power. As?

While we unquestioningly accept the official narrative; INEC declared Tinubu the winner, the judiciary said so, the case is closed – the reality remains: Obi came third, Atiku second. Simple arithmetic.

So, why does every political conversation treat Peter Obi as the man from Aso Rock and Tinubu as the opposition candidate campaigning from the streets? Something is seriously out of balance.

President Tinubu, please note. The real opposition lives in the market.

Tinubu’s biggest political opponent is not Peter Obi. He is not Atiku Abubakar.
It is not social media, the NDC party or the ADC. He is the ordinary Nigerian, the woman who haggles for tomatoes and rice at the market, the father who sets fuel prices and school fees every morning. That voter is the real opposition. You can’t arrest her. You can’t suspend it. You can’t drown that frustration in press releases.

The electorate has a simple and ruthless logic: when it is happy, it rewards. When they suffer, they look elsewhere. Politics doesn’t get any more complicated than this.

Please don’t forget, talk is cheap. But Nigerians want proof.
Nigerians have perfected two arts: listening carefully and comparing what they hear with what they feel in their pockets and belly. The government talks about reforms. People talk about difficulties. The government talks about laying the foundations. People ask, “Foundations for how long?” The government preaches patience. People reply: “Never mind, we haven’t cut since 1999?”

No one denies that the removal of fuel subsidies and exchange rate reforms were economically inevitable. Many experts agree. But economic theory doesn’t fill the plates or pay the bills. Economists celebrate politics. Citizens celebrate the results. Nobody cooks textbooks for dinner.

One interesting thing is that Tinubu’s Propaganda Department is working overtime.
Listen to some government defenders and you’ll be entertained. Instead of showing tangible improvements in living standards, they spend enormous energy attacking Obi, Atiku or anyone who is trendy.

One wonders: If the report card is so impressive, why spend the entire PTA meeting discussing another student’s failures? Show us your results. Instead, the propaganda machine works non-stop. All criticism is labeled “political”. Every complaint is “sponsored”. Every protest is “opposition”. Any dissenting economist is “anti-government.” Every inconvenient title is a “conspiracy”.
Even a generator deserves time to rest.

The big question: Who exactly is Tinubu afraid of? The President commands: the power of the incumbent, federal resources, over 30 aligned governors, the National Assembly, strategic appointments, security agencies and party structures nationwide.

Add the vocal defenders: Bayo Onanuga, Daniel Bwala, Seyi Tinubu, Godswill Akpabio, Reno Omokri, Femi Fani-Kayode, Chief Priest, MC Oluomo, the Iyaloja network, political influencers, media allies, strategists, content creators and even your uncle who argues on WhatsApp every morning.

Yet everyone acts as if somewhere a man with a microphone is about to overthrow the government. Why?

Now listen and listen very carefully. The Mirror is the True Opposition

Perhaps the government is looking in the wrong direction. Peter Obi and Atiku are not the threat. Their supporters can demonstrate, give interviews, create trending hashtags and make videos: this is democracy. But none of them will decide Tinubu’s fate in 2027.

The real decision makers are the trader in Ariaria, the mechanic in Kaduna, the teacher in Osogbo, the banker in Lagos, the farmer in Benue, the civil servant in Enugu, the unemployed graduate in Kano.

When these people start saying, “Yes, life is really getting better,” the campaign is already won. Until then every billboard will be a simple decoration.

Do you know that Lagos is also trying to tell us something? Supporters love to highlight Tinubu’s legacy in Lagos. Fair enough, the city has grown significantly. But politics has a long and stubborn memory.

If Lagosians were completely satisfied after decades of rule, elections would no longer become competitive. But I’m not. That should be a strong signal. The latest presidential result in Lagos says it all.

Nigeria is thirty times more complex than Lagos. If your political fortitude is being challenged despite years of scrutiny, perhaps the answer is not to shout louder. Maybe it’s to govern better.

Always remember that good governance is the best campaign manager. Some assume that Tinubu’s perceived political experience guarantees victory. Politics doesn’t work that way. Experience only wins when it delivers visible results.

People don’t expect perfection. They ask for evidence, reasons to believe that tomorrow will be better than today. That’s not too much to ask.

My friendly advice to think about. Ironically, Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar may be doing this government a greater service than some of its most ardent supporters. They keep reminding him that Nigerians are watching.

Opposition is not the disease. Often it is the thermometer. Breaking the thermometer never cured a fever.

Mr President still has time, more than enough.

If governance became more visible than propaganda… If performance began to speak louder than spokespersons… If ordinary Nigerians began to feel real relief…
Then 2027 could prove to be much easier than many now fear.

But if the administration continues to treat every challenge as if it bears the face of Obi or Atiku, it may one day wake up and find that its real opponent has no political party. It was simply public opinion. And with public opinion, unlike politicians, you cannot negotiate.

As we say in Nigeria: “He who wears shoes knows where it pinches”.

People know exactly where Nigeria is holding them. The sooner the government listens to this pain instead of arguing with those who describe it, the better its chances will be, not only at the next election, but of creating a legacy that survives the election.
One word, they say, is enough for the wise.

●Braimah is an advocate of good governance and sustainable progress