Wunti warns Africa against repeating oil’s mistakes with lithium, cobalt and rare earths

World Energy Council Nigeria CEO Bala Wunti has warned African countries against repeating the economic model of the continent exporting crude oil while importing refined petroleum products, urging them to add value to critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt and rare earths.

Wunti said Africa must move beyond being a supplier of raw materials and position itself as a competitive hub for mineral processing and production as global demand for critical minerals continues to increase.

He spoke at Concordia’s 2026 Annual Summit in New York during a session titled “Rare Currency: Critical Minerals in a Changing Global Economy.”

The summit, held Sept. 20-23 at the Sheraton New York Times Square next to the United Nations General Assembly, attracted heads of state, senior government officials and business leaders from more than 100 countries.

Wunti spoke on the panel alongside Alix Steel, director of DrivePath Advisors and former host of Bloomberg Television; Steven Fox, founder and executive chairman of Veracity Worldwide; and Scott Monteith, President and CEO of Avalon Advanced Materials.

The discussion focused on the United States’ growing dependence on imports of critical minerals, China’s dominance in global mineral processing capacity, and the implications for defense, electricity generation, transmission grid, technology and industrial competitiveness.

Wunti, who has more than three decades of experience developing and financing large-scale energy systems and previously served as Chief Upstream Investment Officer at the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, highlighted the need for urgent action to close the global supply gap.

“Urgency, necessity and speed of action are essential,” Wunti said.

He noted that although the United States is seeking to increase domestic production, developing new capabilities could take decades, making partnerships with allies essential.

“Closing the supply gap has become a compelling national priority for the United States. However, domestic production takes decades, allies are indispensable, and a considerable gap remains between political ambition and commercial reality,” he said.

Wunti linked energy security to mineral security, saying the global economy is shifting from one dominated by hydrocarbons to one increasingly driven by strategic minerals.

“For the last 50 years, we have priced energy in barrels. For the next 50 years, we will price it in kilograms, including kilograms of lithium, cobalt, graphite and rare earth elements,” he said.

“Whether these kilograms are controlled by allies or adversaries will help define the next global industrial order.”

The energy expert warned African governments against allowing the permanent export of critical minerals in their raw form, drawing parallels with the continent’s experience in the oil sector.

“The export of crude oil and the import of refined petroleum products have created poverty, not prosperity. This pattern must not be repeated with lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements,” he said.

While acknowledging that temporary exports of concentrates may be commercially necessary, Wunti said African countries should focus on developing local processing capacity, attracting investment and creating jobs through value addition.

“Africa must not simply remain a source of raw materials. It must become a transformation partner,” he said.

According to him, countries that develop their mining projects and enter the market early would have an advantage in the emerging critical minerals economy.

“The real prize is adding value through transformation, factories, jobs and industrialization on the continent, rather than exporting those opportunities to Asia,” Wunti said.

Addressing why Nigeria is yet to fully develop its 44 identified critical minerals, Wunti said the country’s main challenge was to convert mineral potential into bankable investment opportunities.

“Having minerals in the ground is just the beginning. We had geological indications, but no proven reserves supported by JORC-compliant data. We also had good policies, but no clearly defined projects. The world invests in projects, not potential,” he said.

It identified six key requirements for attracting investment into the sector: reliable geological data, clearly defined projects, enabling infrastructure, predictable regulation, credible developers and viable routes to market.

Wunti described the Nigerian Solid Minerals Company as the country’s leading investment platform for turning mineral resources into commercially viable projects.

“The company is taking Nigeria from simply saying, ‘We have minerals,’ to coming up with investment projects with clear business propositions,” he said.

He added that rare earth elements may not necessarily be scarce in the ground, but they are difficult to bring to market due to the capital and technology required.

“Rare earth elements are not necessarily rare in the ground. They are rare on the market. Bringing them to the market requires capital and technology,” he said.

Wunti said Nigeria needs to present real business transactions to investors rather than relying on presentations about the country’s mineral potential.

“We need to present real transactions to investors, not just pitches. Give me a credible price and I will give you private capital,” he said.

He also welcomed recent US measures, including Executive Order 14241, development finance initiatives, export controls and bilateral mining agreements.

He cited the $110 per kilo price floor for neodymium and praseodymium products under the MP Materials deal as an example of government intervention that could provide investors with greater commercial certainty.

However, Wunti stressed that African governments must complement international measures with sound domestic policies and trade discipline.

“Ultimately, private capital has to do the heavy lifting, but governments have to make projects investable,” he said.

According to him, governments should address risks that investors could not resolve independently, including inadequate geological information, unpredictable regulations, inadequate infrastructure, inefficient permitting processes and weak investment frameworks.

According to him, while governments can improve the bankability of mining projects, they cannot turn fundamentally unsustainable ventures into profitable investments.

“Investors still need a competitive economy and credible buyers,” Wunti said.

It identified JORC-compliant geological data, commercially viable prices, stable and competitive tax systems and credible buyers as essential conditions for attracting investment.

“The lesson is price, not tone,” he said.

Wunti also argued that credible pricing mechanisms could help bridge the gap between government policy and commercial reality.

“When the right price and investment conditions are available, processing can come to Africa. This moves from potential to bankability, from barrels to kilograms and from extraction to processing,” he said.

He urged governments to strengthen supply chain resilience through domestic capabilities and diversified international partnerships, cautioning against pursuing complete economic isolation.

“Pursue self-sufficiency, but not isolation. Complete independence is an illusion. The goal is resilience,” Wunti said.

He added that supply chain security does not require countries to produce everything domestically.

“Safety doesn’t mean producing everything within your borders. It means ensuring that a competitor can’t cut off supplies to you within 90 days,” he said.

Wunti said a partnership model that combines American technology and capital with African mineral resources, processing capacity and talent could help unlock greater value from the continent’s critical minerals sector.

The Concordia Annual Summit is a global forum held alongside the United Nations General Assembly, bringing together leaders from government, business and civil society to discuss key international challenges.