The World Bank estimates Nigeria’s growth rate at 4.3% in 2026

The World Bank has raised its 2026 growth forecast for Nigeria to 4.3 percent from 4.0% in 2025, citing improving macroeconomic stability, recovering investor confidence and a gradual revival of private investment.

But the World Bank warned that increased government spending ahead of elections in 2027 could weaken the momentum of recent economic reforms.

The projections were contained in the bank’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update, titled Building AI Readiness, released on Tuesday. The report also raised Nigeria’s growth forecast for 2027 and 2028 to 4.4 percent annually, compared with a forecast expansion of 4.0 percent in 2025.

The update attributed the stronger outlook to improving macroeconomic stability, strengthening investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private investment.

The lender expects Nigeria’s economic expansion to strengthen in the next three years as the impact of economic reforms and improved macroeconomic management become more apparent.

“Economic activity in Nigeria is projected to increase from 4.0 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026, before rising to 4.4 percent annually in 2027–28, supported by improving macroeconomic stability, strengthening investor confidence, and the gradual recovery of private investment,” the World Bank said.

The World Bank’s chief economist for Africa, Andrew Dabalen, said Sub-Saharan Africa continued to show resilience, with improved growth forecasts for almost three-quarters of the region’s countries.

The revised World Bank estimates follow Nigeria’s recent stronger GDP performance, with faster economic growth in the second quarter of 2026.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 4.43% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, compared to 4.23% in the same quarter of 2025.

The 4.43% expansion is an increase from the 4.23% growth recorded in Q2 2025.

Recent performance provides the latest domestic indicators of economic expansion as reflected in revised World Bank projections.

The World Bank estimates growth will continue to strengthen after 2026, reaching 4.4% per year in 2027 and 2028.