IMPI backs Tinubu loans, insists Nigeria needs minimum annual capital spending of $14.2 billion on infrastructure for 10 years – THISAGE

One of Nigeria’s main political groups, the Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI), has justified the loans from President Bola Tinubu’s administration by arguing that it is the most realistic way to close the country’s huge infrastructure gap.

In a policy statement signed by its president, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, the think tank argued that Nigeria’s infrastructure challenges were too large to be covered by the annual budget without the federal government resorting to borrowing.

This according to IMPI is due to the fact that, after considering various estimates from international bodies, it is estimated that the country will require a minimum annual expenditure of 14.2 billion dollars over the next 10 years to fill its infrastructure deficit.

“Nigeria’s productivity and standard of living have over the years been attributed to inadequate infrastructure. While there is apparent consensus on this statement, there have been varying estimates of the true value of the country’s infrastructure deficit.
“The World Bank, which classifies Nigeria as a middle-income economy, has estimated that the nation’s total infrastructure assets are approximately 30-35% of its gross domestic product (GDP). This ratio is well below the World Bank’s 70% benchmark for middle-income economies. Therefore, Nigeria is projected to need a cumulative investment of up to $3 trillion over 30 years to close the infrastructure gap.

“The African Development Bank (AfDB), on the other hand, has estimated the value of the country’s infrastructure deficit at $2.3 trillion, $700 billion less than the World Bank’s estimate. According to its former president, Dr. Akinwunmi Adesina, Nigeria needs $15 billion in annual investment over 20 years to close the infrastructure gap.

“The International Finance Corporation (IFC), for its part, has estimated a lower figure of $2 trillion over 20 years to close that gap. However, KPMG, the global accounting firm, has estimated a much lower annual infrastructure spending of $14.2 billion over 10 years, for a total of $142 billion to close the country’s huge infrastructure gap.

“To determine which of the estimates can be realized in Nigeria’s perpetually limited revenue-generating circumstances, we put the different infrastructure deficit estimates to the test of probable outcomes, which determine the probability of specific outcomes from a random event or experiment, often calculated as the ratio of favorable outcomes to the total possible outcomes.

“Of all the estimates, KPMG’s $142 billion aligned most closely with the Nigerian situation, with a likely outcome indicating that spending $14.2 billion per year over 10 years (for a total of $142 billion) is a key target for closing Nigeria’s infrastructure gap.

“Consequently, sustained investment at this level, particularly in transport, energy and digital infrastructure, will catalyze substantial economic growth and significantly reduce the deficit.

“While this estimate will by no means provide the full package of needed infrastructure, the investment will transform Nigeria from an infrastructure-deficient state to one with a rapidly modernized, connected and sustainable system. Such investments could generate approximately 3 to 4 times more jobs in the economy, significantly reduce unemployment and address poor road networks, improve air transport safety and facilitate faster growth to support a modern digital economy, among other benefits,” he said.

Analyzing federal budget data for the past 25 years, the think tank noted that it was only under President Tinubu’s watch that the annual capital budget was close to what was prescribed to address the nation’s infrastructure gap.
“We note at this juncture the almost perennially low budget implementation threshold since 2000, with the obvious irrelevance of spending allocated for infrastructure development.

“However, at this time, we recognize the record fiscal milestone set by the President Tinubu-led federal administration, which matched and exceeded KPMG’s $14.2 billion annual infrastructure spending estimate for the first time in Nigeria’s fiscal history.

“Based on the passage of the Appropriation Bill of 2026, the Nigerian government significantly expanded its fiscal framework, with a total budget that broke all records. Remarkably, the budget allocated $23 billion (about half of the total budget) for infrastructure and other capital expenditure.

“Without a doubt, Budget 2026 is indicative of a new outlook in the nation’s fiscal firmament, with an emphasis on securing debt for infrastructure development.

“The approved $23 billion infrastructure budget is approximately the same size as the budget deficit which will be financed almost entirely through debt,” IMPI added.

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