Nuclear energy in the Middle East: Realistic option or risk?

“Nuclear energy is at the intersection of energy needs, technological innovation and an evolving security landscape. This creates enormous opportunities,” said Shota Kamishima, Senior Coordinating Officer at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Sustainable supply

“If developed properly, nuclear energy can support sustainable development, increase energy security, and even serve as a platform for regional cooperation.”

The revival of this power source, which took a hit after the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, was demonstrated at the 2023 UN Climate Change Conference, where nuclear energy was officially recognized as a low-emission technology that should be accelerated in its promotion.

33 countries support the goal will triple their nuclear power generation capacity by 2050, including the United Arab Emirates, where the Barakah nuclear power plant meets around 25 percent of the country’s domestic energy needs.

Currently, 416 nuclear reactors in 31 countries provide nearly 10 percent of the world’s electricity. Another 63 reactors are under construction, and about 60 countries are considering or planning to introduce nuclear power, including small modular reactors.

Egypt is optimistic about nuclear power as part of its comprehensive energy strategy.

In addition to renewable energy projects, including the Benban Solar Park and the Gulf of Suez Wind Farm, the country is also nearing completion of the El Dabaa nuclear power plant, which will have a total installed capacity of 4,800 megawatts.

Egyptian authorities believe that this will help them build a stable and efficient system that will also allow them to sell green electricity abroad.

“Energy demand in the Middle East and North Africa region has tripled from 2000 to 2024 and will continue to increase, driven by AI and economic transformation,” said Almuntaser Albalawi, researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR). “The region has unique needs for desalination and cooling, making reliance on stable energy sources increasingly urgent.”

Security, climate and long-term uncertainty

Despite all these demands, geopolitical conditions in the Middle East raise questions regarding the safety of developing and operating nuclear energy in the region.

“When we talk about nuclear power plants, a reasonable unit of time is their life cycle – about 75 years from construction to decommissioning,” said Professor Zia Mian, a senior researcher at Princeton University and co-director of the Science and Global Security Program.

“All of these discussions must revolve around a central question: What has the Middle East looked like in the last 75 years?

“How do we expect it to develop in the future?” he asked, pointing to the Arab-Israeli wars in 1967 and 1973, the Iran-Iraq war from 1980 to 1988, then the US-Iraq war followed by the civil war in Syria.

“Are you willing to bet that the next 75 years will be fundamentally different from the last 75 years?”

In addition to safety and political considerations, there are also concerns that the climate and environment for nuclear energy development is not suitable in the Middle East.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) First Arab Countries Climate Report released in 2024, the Middle East is warming twice as fast as the global average.

By the end of the century, temperatures could increase by five degrees Celsius, which directly affects the operation of nuclear power plants.

“In other words,” says Professor Mian, the Middle East is almost uninhabitable for people living outdoors.

“In addition, the heat exchange requirements of nuclear power plants are very large, and their cooling water requirements are also very large. Every summer, for example, when society most needs electricity for cooling, France has to shut down nuclear power plants because the temperature outside is too high.”

Flying carpet?

According to Professor Mian, the fastest and cheapest way to produce electricity is renewable energy. “Instead of waiting 10 years to get nuclear power, you can get solar or wind power for a decade at a fraction of the cost. Therefore, in terms of climate benefits per dollar spent, the two are incomparable.

“I’ve seen a lot of narratives about the so-called ‘nuclear awakening,’” he said. “It’s actually an old idea. Every generation tries to sell the same flying carpet. Technological determinism like ‘buy my reactor, tomorrow is the golden age’ is the worst. The world doesn’t work like that. Politics, people, systems and history are the key.”