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It has now been 46 days since the war between the US/Israel and Iran began in the Middle East on February 28, throwing the entire world into chaos, gradually evolving into a war of civilizations, a bloody theater of bloodshed, death and destruction, a tangle of cultural differences, regional tensions and melodramatic attacks on global diplomacy and peace. When a two-week ceasefire was announced on April 7, recovery was immediately felt in the markets: US spot prices of Brent and Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil weakened to below $100 per barrel, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi and major indexes in the US all strengthened, providing great optimism to markets and investors. Reports that the US and Iran have agreed to send a delegation for Pakistan-brokered talks in Islamabad have further raised hopes. War is not good for anyone, and the other side suffers unexpected losses as we see in the war of attrition in the Middle East.
But last weekend, talks in Islamabad failed miserably, Americans led by Vice President JD Vance left the country, and an Iranian delegation led by their Speaker of Parliament, Mohammed Ghalibaf, insisted that Tehran would not “give in under threats.” Therefore, what was projected as Operation Rage (US) or Operation Rising Lion (Israel) – a military expedition of surprise and awe – now appears as a long and costly journey for all concerned. Starting a war is easy, but no one can accurately predict when or how it will end. The talks in Islamabad were doomed to failure: there was no trust between the warring parties, there was little agreement between the 15-point plan proposed by America and the 10-point plan proposed by Iran, and the talks lasted 21 hours against a backdrop of Israel bombarding Hezbollah in Lebanon, growing hostilities in the region, and a lack of goodwill. The parties are supposed to have conversations while pointing bombs, drones and guns at each other’s heads.
What kind of conversation? Iran accused the United States of “maximalism, changing goals, and threatening blockade.” US President Trump said peace talks failed because “Tehran is unwilling to give up its nuclear ambitions.” By Sunday evening, the threat had spread across the Atlantic. President Trump threatened to block the entire Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s coastline, to stop ships entering or leaving at 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT, 15:00 BST) on Monday. Yesterday, the order was implemented at the time specified by US Central Command with clear direction that trespassing vessels “will be intercepted, diverted, and apprehended” and the order will be enforced “impartially.” The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln has been positioned on the edge of the Gulf of Oman, supported by the two destroyers USS Frank E Petersen Jr and USS Michael Murphy. The war has entered a new phase. Iran’s parliament speaker said “if they fight, we will fight.”
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would destroy any military ships approaching the Strait of Hormuz. Other countries in the world are asking for “freedom of navigation” as their main concern is crude oil supplies, and how closing the Strait will impact another shock to the global economy. There are no easy answers. There is greater uncertainty. What happens next will depend on whether the blockade is effective, and for how long, whether shipping disruptions increase, and whether diplomacy resumes. On a final point, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, a peace broker in the conflict, said that efforts were being made to resolve outstanding issues. But will diplomacy bring about change any time soon? Iran insists on maintaining its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump says they should stop collecting tolls along the waterway, stop extorting money, and this looks like Trump’s strategy to block Tehran’s sources of revenue, and force its leaders to return to talks. However, Trump said, “I don’t care if they come back or not.” It is in Trump’s interest to care, and not close the door to diplomacy. He lost popularity at home. He faces a popularity test in midterm elections in November that may prove crucial. He used the same warship tactics as those employed in Venezuela and the Pacific, but appeared weak in the face of Tehran’s resistance. He also lost popularity abroad. Countries in Asia and the EU and UK oppose the blockade. They don’t support it. The risk is higher. For example, will the US attack, destroy or seize Chinese ships? Or a Russian ship? Or India and Pakistan? The world watched with bated breath.
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More voices of reason will be needed in the room. Pakistan has tried and intends to keep trying. Pope Leo Not even Hitler or the Italian fascist Mussolini were rude to the Pope. The closest we have to a dictator who opposed the Pope more directly was Joseph Stalin, the Russian dictator, who in 1935, reportedly said of Pope Pius Stalin was renowned for his use of harsh language. But in 2026, US President Donald Trump proved to be worse than Stalin. Pope Leo XIV was the first American Pope. He has been vocal since Easter in calling for peace, and calling on those who want to kill entire civilizations, such as Trump, to desist from the “madness of war.” Trump then replied. He has asked the Pope “to focus on being a Supreme Pontiff, not a politician.” He told Pope Leo to be “grateful” and reminded him that he, Trump, helped him become Pope. “If I wasn’t in the White House, Leo wouldn’t be in the Vatican.” He further accused the Pope of being “weak on crime, weak on nuclear weapons, bad on foreign policy… I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s OK for Iran to have nuclear weapons… Leo must get his act together as Pope” Pope Leo, who has embarked on a major African tour of 11 cities in four African countries – Algeria, Angola Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea said he is not ready to engage President Trump in a debate. Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, like Catholics around the world, defended the Pope: “I find President Trump’s words against the Holy Father unacceptable. The Pope is the head of the Catholic Church, and it is right and proper that he calls for peace and condemns all forms of war.” One quick lesson that President Trump may have learned in the last 24 hours is that the Pope is not a Secretary General of the United Nations who can be spoken to in condescending tones. He also cannot revoke the Pope’s citizenship. And he couldn’t attack the Vatican. Nor is it NATO, which Trump regards as a “paper tiger” he can bully at will.
The Pope has global and divine authority that transcends military and secular power. But Trump doesn’t seem to know the limits of his abilities. In his grand gesture of messianic, perhaps imaginary, power, Trump and his handlers posted on Truth Social yesterday an AI-generated image depicting him as a Christ-like figure, light streaming from his hands, shining, saving a man in a hospital bed. The post was roundly condemned, even by members of Trump’s traditional constituency, namely the right-wing Conservatives. Trump, who imagines himself as the Jesus Christ of our time, explains his disrespect for the person and authority of the Pope and the global influence of the Catholic Church. The blasphemous image has since been removed.
Last month, March 19, earlier this month, April 2, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced the formation of a coalition of 35 and 40 countries coming together to discuss closing the Strait of Hormuz. This group is led by Britain and France, with the aim of securing global trade and shipping routes through the Strait. Other countries that are members of the coalition include Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, the Republic of Korea, Canada, Somalia, Albania, Montenegro, Portugal, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, New Zealand, Greece and others. Nigeria is also a member. It is important for Nigeria to be present when important talks are being discussed around the world. An initial statement from the Keir Starmer-led coalition read: “…We express our deep concern at the escalation of the conflict. We call on Iran to immediately cease its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the Strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817… Freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle of international law, including under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea… The impact of Iran’s actions will be felt by people in all parts of the world, especially those who are most vulnerable.” This statement primarily focused on “Iran’s actions.” Now the time has come for the “coalition of the willing” to issue another statement condemning the United States and Israel, its allies. Iran may have used the Strait of Hormuz as leverage in the war, but now Trump, the same Trump, who previously called on oil-dependent countries from the Middle East to reopen the waterway, is now the same person who has vowed to completely close both ends of the passage, thereby blocking maritime traffic.
Is this legal? The United States is not a party to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOSS), but under customary international law, states are required to respect freedom of navigation rules. Article 3(c) of the UN General Assembly’s definition of aggression in Resolution 3314 (XXIX) (1974) considers a naval blockade of a country’s coast or port by the armed forces of another country to be an act of armed aggression. No country has the right to block the high seas unilaterally even when an armed conflict occurs. The Strait of Hormuz in particular is governed by the right of transit passage. About 20% of the world’s total energy needs (oil, fertilizer, liquefied natural gas, merchandise, etc.) pass through the narrow waterway, 33 km wide, and shipping lanes 3 km wide in both directions. The strait is said to be a minefield, but its explosion, literally and figuratively, has impacted the entire region and the entire world. Everyone is in on this: insurance premiums in the shipping industry are rising, international transportation is being disrupted, crude oil prices are up more than 7% in the last two days, fertilizer and household budgets are skyrocketing. In March, US inflation soared, its highest level in two years. The future is uncertain as the global economy shrinks, the real threat of inflation, job losses, and a global recession that may last longer than expected have become the norm. The structure of international relations is deteriorating as diplomacy increasingly appears dangerous and states prioritize narrow, sovereign interests over other interests.
This is the morning after the blockade. There is no clear answer. The world is in limbo.
AUTHOR: Ruben Abati
Articles published in our Graffiti section are solely the opinion of the author and do not represent the views of Ripples Nigeria or its editorial stance.
