The World Bank warns of worsening poverty and food insecurity in Nigeria despite economic progress

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that poverty and food insecurity levels in Nigeria are likely to worsen, this may be due to rising prices of essential goods in the country.

This occurred despite improvements in the country’s macroeconomic stability and favorable external trade conditions.

The lender disclosed this in its October 2026 World Economic Outlook report, titled “Resilience Under Stress, an Urgent Option”, published on Tuesday.

This report highlights the growing disconnect between improving economic indicators and the living conditions of vulnerable households.

“Nigeria is supported by improving macroeconomic stability and favorable trade impacts, although higher prices of basic commodities are expected to further exacerbate poverty and food insecurity,” the IMF said.

The assessment shows that Nigeria’s recent economic stabilization efforts have strengthened its economic prospects but have not relieved the pressures facing households, particularly those struggling with rising prices of food and other basic needs.

According to the IMF, Nigeria is one of the largest economies in Sub-Saharan Africa that has benefited from previous economic stabilization and reform measures, although the region remains vulnerable to commodity price volatility, climate shocks and limited access to external financing.

The report projects that economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa will remain stable at 4.5 percent in 2026, reflecting differences in policy implementation, fiscal capacity and exposure to global economic disruptions.

The report states, “Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain stable at 4.5 percent in 2026, although this masks some large differences between countries.”

The IMF explained that although oil-importing countries and countries that are not resource-intensive face greater pressure due to rising energy and food prices, some large countries have benefited from previous reforms and improved economic conditions.

Nigeria’s favorable trade position provides support to economic activity, especially amidst changes in international commodity prices.

However, the IMF assessment shows that stronger macroeconomic fundamentals do not automatically mean improved household welfare, especially when prices of important commodities continue to rise.

The report also identifies declining official development assistance and limited participation in the global artificial intelligence investment boom as challenges facing several African economies.

IMF country-specific projections show that Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow by 4.2 percent in 2026, compared with a forecast of 4.0 percent in 2025, before accelerating to 4.3 percent in 2027.

The 2026 forecast represents an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the IMF’s projection in April, while the 2027 forecast was also raised by 0.1 percentage point.

This projection suggests a stronger external position in 2026, although the expected decline in the surplus next year suggests a moderation in the external balance.

The IMF further warned that persistent geopolitical tensions, higher food and energy prices, and tighter global financing conditions could weaken economic growth, particularly in developing countries.