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President Bola Ahmed Tinubu may be gradually positioning himself for a second term, following a new political projection that puts him ahead of his main rivals, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Labor Party presidential candidate Peter Obi, in the 2027 presidential election.
Politico.ng’s Political Intelligence Group (PIG) projection gives Tinubu 20 states, compared to Atiku’s nine states and Obi’s eight, if the presidential election were held under the political circumstances prevailing at the moment.
The analysis made public by Mr. Lai Omotola, editor of
Publisher The Politico.ng said the country is heading for its toughest and most well-fought elections in 2027.
According to Omotola, while the forecasts are not a prediction of the final outcome of the election, they offer an indication of the political terrain the opposition will face and, more importantly, highlight the potential path through which the incumbent president could secure re-election.
Tinubu’s greatest advantage may be that he does not have to build his political structure from scratch. As the incumbent president and leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), he enters the 2027 contest with access to an established party structure at the national level and the benefits that come with office.
The South West could provide the foundation:
One of the clearest reasons why Tinubu could emerge victorious is his expected dominance in the South West.
The PIG expects the president to win all six states in the region, including Lagos, where he suffered an unexpected defeat to Peter Obi in the 2023 presidential election.
A return of Lagos to Tinubu’s column would be particularly significant:
Lagos is not only Nigeria’s most populous state, but also the political base on which Tinubu has built much of his political career. His influence in the state and the broader Southwest gives him a potentially formidable voter base before the battle moves to other regions.
If Tinubu can consolidate the South West while making substantial gains in the North, he could establish the kind of national outreach needed to defeat a divided opposition.
The Kano factor:
Perhaps the most important element of the project is the inclusion of Kano among the states that should go to Tinubu.
Kano is one of Nigeria’s largest electoral territories and has historically played an important role in determining presidential elections.
A Tinubu victory in Kano would mean the president’s support would not be limited to his traditional South-West political base.
It would also demonstrate the potential effectiveness of his strategy of building a broader political coalition that transcends regional boundaries.
In a presidential election in which victory depends on both the national vote and constitutional requirements regarding geographic spread, an incumbent president’s ability to combine strong Southwestern support with significant Northern support could prove decisive.
Incumbency and political structure
Tinubu also has another advantage that should not be underestimated: time and the political machine.
The president has an entire administration through which his policies, programs and achievements can be presented to voters before elections.
The APC, as the ruling party, also has elected officials, political structures and networks across the country.
This does not automatically translate into an electoral victory, but it gives the president an organizational advantage over opposition candidates who may still need to resolve issues regarding alliances, party structures, and the distribution of political influence.
The 2027 contest could therefore become as much a battle of political organization as a contest of personalities.
The Economy: Tinubu’s Biggest Risk and Opportunity:
But if Tinubu wants to turn the current projection into a real victory, the economy could be the deciding factor.
The elimination of fuel subsidies, inflation, transportation costs, food prices, unemployment and household purchasing power have created significant pressure on Nigerians.
These issues could become the central battleground of the 2027 elections.
But the same economic reforms that create political risks for Tinubu could also offer him an opportunity.
If the administration could demonstrate measurable improvement in the economy before the election – particularly through lower inflation, improved purchasing power, increased employment, infrastructure development, and greater economic stability – the president could argue that the difficult policies implemented during his first term were necessary foundations for a long-term recovery.
The political question will therefore be whether voters in 2027 will judge the administration primarily based on the difficulties experienced during the reform period or based on the economic conditions existing at the time they vote.
Because the opposition faces a difficult equation:
The projection also highlights a major challenge facing the opposition.
Atiku is expected to win nine states while Obi will win eight. Individually, both remain significant political forces, but their combined strength could become more complicated if they compete separately.
The possibility of opposition cooperation or a broader coalition could therefore be one of the most important variables in the 2027 elections.
If Atiku and Obi, or the political forces behind them, remain divided, Tinubu could benefit from a divided opposition vote.
In a majoritarian electoral context, an incumbent president does not necessarily need overwhelming popularity in every region. It needs an effective coalition capable of producing the necessary spread of votes within the federation.
This is potentially the most important lesson of the current screening.
Atiku’s northern force may still matter:
Atiku remains a formidable political figure, especially due to his well-established political network in the north and experience in presidential contests.
The IGP projects him to conquer nine states, including Kaduna and the North-East and North-West states.
His campaign may also seek to take advantage of economic hardship, particularly the high cost of transportation and living.
His position on fuel subsidies could become a major campaign issue if gasoline prices and transportation costs remain major concerns for voters.
But Atiku’s challenge will be to convert the Northern force into a true national coalition.
To defeat an incumbent president who enjoys substantial support in the Southwest and other parts of the country, he would need to make significant gains outside his strongest areas.
Obi’s challenge: expand beyond 2023:
Peter Obi presents a different challenge to Tinubu.
His strong performance in the 2023 presidential election made him a major political force and gave him a substantial following among voters seeking political change.
The PIG projects him to win eight states and the federal capital territory.
However, the central question for Obi ahead of 2027 is whether he can transform the enthusiasm surrounding his political movement into a sufficiently broad national electoral coalition.
It would be crucial to conquer other states beyond its established areas of strength.
The emergence of new alliances, defections and party structures could determine whether Obi is able to expand his electoral map or whether his support remains concentrated in particular regions and demographic groups.
Tinubu’s possible road to victory in 2027:
The current projection suggests a relatively simple political calculation for Tinubu.
First of all it must consolidate the South-West.
Second, it must maintain or expand its support in the North.
Third, it must prevent the opposition from developing a sufficiently broad coalition around a single candidate.
Fourth, his administration must demonstrate by 2027 that its economic reforms are producing tangible benefits for the Nigerian people.
Finally, the APC must maintain internal cohesion and effectively mobilize its political structures across the country.
If these elements come together, Tinubu could go into the 2027 elections with a coalition large enough to overcome the combined challenge of Atiku and Obi.
But the elections are far from decided:
The 20-state projection should therefore be seen as a snapshot of the current political landscape rather than a statement of what will happen in 2027.
Economic conditions may improve or worsen. Political alliances can be created. Candidates may defect. New political movements may emerge. The candidates running could alter the calculations, while regional, religious and ethnic considerations could influence voting patterns.
More importantly, voters may ultimately decide the election based on their assessment of their economic situation and the government’s performance in the months immediately preceding the election.
For now, however, the numbers provide an important advantage for the incumbent.
With 20 states predicted for Tinubu versus nine for Atiku and eight for Obi, the president currently appears to have the clearest electoral path to victory.
The real battle between now and 2027, then, may not simply be about Tinubu’s victory, but whether his adversaries can sufficiently unite, expand their geographic reach, and persuade Nigerians to offer a more compelling alternative.
If the current political structure remains largely unchanged, Tinubu’s combination of incumbent power, the APC’s national apparatus, expected dominance in the South West, potential gains in the North and a divided opposition could make him the candidate to beat in 2027.
